Kimi K3

waiver · week 1

This is the complete record of one model call: everything sent, everything returned, and every check run against it. Nothing is summarised or edited.

Outcome

VALID

Parsed cleanly against the schema on this attempt.

Tokens

10837 → 1637

1123 of the output was reasoning

Cost

$0.0571

24.7s latency

Temperature

0.2

Requested identically for all eight models

What it said

Structured reasoning, exactly as returned

Kimi K3waiverstated confidence 0.64

Bid $12 to upgrade WR with Stefon Diggs and $4 to replace Kyle Pitts with Dallas Goedert.

Key factors

Team G is 0-1 and ranked 7th with 113.76 points_for, so early lineup upgrades matter but budget must last 13 more weeks.
Stefon Diggs available_players projection is 12.55 and season_ppg is 15.5, above Wan'Dale Robinson's projection 7.7 and season_ppg 8.8.
Dallas Goedert available_players season_ppg is 23.7 versus Kyle Pitts your_roster season_ppg 0, with nearly identical projections of 9.91 and 9.72.
Week 2 opponent Team C scored 98.4 and ranks 8th, so this is a winnable week without overspending.
FAAB remaining is 100 and waiver_priority is 2, supporting a moderate but not season-ending bid.

Closest call. I nearly bid harder for Chuba Hubbard because his season_ppg is 23.7, but his projection is only 12.06 and my RB group already has Javonte Williams at 16.82 projection and James Cook at 17.02 projection.

What would have changed it. If Diggs were projected below my current WR starters or if Team C's roster projected like a top-two opponent, I would either pass or redirect budget toward a higher-variance starter.

Automated checks

Deterministic string and number matching — never a model call

Fields cited

RULEBOOKavailable_playersfaab_remainingopponentpoints_forprojectionrankrosterseason_ppgwaiver_priorityweekyouyour_roster

Data fields and rulebook values the stated reasoning can be tied back to.

Claims not tied to the data

None.

Advisory only. This checker was wrong about most of what it flagged the first time it ran against real output — see methodology. Read these as prompts to go and look, not as verdicts.

Formatting notes

key_factors: 5 (max 4)
key_factors[0]: 22 words (max 20)

Cosmetic deviations from the bounded schema. Deliberately kept separate from the column above, and they never trigger a fallback — reporting a model as having failed over formatting would misstate what happened.

Everything sent and returned

Unedited · the response is stored before any parsing or repair

Raw response, exactly as the model emitted it

{
  "claims": [
    {
      "add_player_id": "2449",
      "drop_player_id": "8126",
      "bid": 12,
      "reasoning": "Stefon Diggs is a clear PPR upgrade over Wan'Dale Robinson with season_ppg 15.5 and projection 12.55 versus Robinson's 8.8 season_ppg and 7.7 projection."
    },
    {
      "add_player_id": "5022",
      "drop_player_id": "7553",
      "bid": 4,
      "reasoning": "Dallas Goedert gives Kelce insurance and flex utility after posting season_ppg 23.7, while Kyle Pitts has season_ppg 0 and only projection 9.72."
    }
  ],
  "headline": "Bid $12 to upgrade WR with Stefon Diggs and $4 to replace Kyle Pitts with Dallas Goedert.",
  "key_factors": [
    "Team G is 0-1 and ranked 7th with 113.76 points_for, so early lineup upgrades matter but budget must last 13 more weeks.",
    "Stefon Diggs available_players projection is 12.55 and season_ppg is 15.5, above Wan'Dale Robinson's projection 7.7 and season_ppg 8.8.",
    "Dallas Goedert available_players season_ppg is 23.7 versus Kyle Pitts your_roster season_ppg 0, with nearly identical projections of 9.91 and 9.72.",
    "Week 2 opponent Team C scored 98.4 and ranks 8th, so this is a winnable week without overspending.",
    "FAAB remaining is 100 and waiver_priority is 2, supporting a moderate but not season-ending bid."
  ],
  "closest_call": "I nearly bid harder for Chuba Hubbard because his season_ppg is 23.7, but his projection is only 12.06 and my RB group already has Javonte Williams at 16.82 projection and James Cook at 17.02 projection.",
  "what_would_change_it": "If Diggs were projected below my current WR starters or if Team C's roster projected like a top-two opponent, I would either pass or redirect budget toward a higher-variance starter.",
  "confidence": 0.64
}

System prompt (sys-v3)

You are a fantasy football manager running one team for a full season.
You commit to choices and back them with the data provided.

DATA RULE (highest priority):
Reason only from the RULEBOOK and the DATA block in this message. Do not
use your own memory of player performance, injuries, depth charts, teams,
or schedules. Your training data is out of date for this NFL season. If
the DATA block conflicts with what you remember, the DATA block is
correct. If a field is null, treat it as unknown.

RULES:
1. Score every option against the RULEBOOK scoring table, not against a
   generic notion of fantasy value.
2. Optimize for the OBJECTIVE stated in the RULEBOOK. Nothing else.
3. Weigh projection, recent form, matchup, and injury status.
4. Commit to a specific choice. No ranges, no hedging.
5. Ground every claim in a specific DATA or RULEBOOK field. Cite the field
   and its value. Do not assert anything the data does not support.
6. Name the decision you were least sure about and say what would have
   changed your mind.

OUTPUT RULE:
Return only a single JSON object matching the schema. No preamble, no
markdown, no code fences.

User prompt — rulebook, memory and data block (33,535 characters)

=== LEAGUE RULEBOOK rulebook-v3 ===

OBJECTIVE (this is what you are optimizing):
WIN THE LEAGUE. That is three things, in order:
  1. Win your weekly head-to-head matchup. Each week you are paired against
     exactly one other team. Whoever scores more points wins. A tie is a tie.
  2. Finish in the top 4 of 8 after week 14 to reach the playoffs.
     Seeding is head-to-head record; ties break on cumulative total points.
  3. Win the 2-week playoff bracket.
Nothing else ranks you. An ALL-PLAY record (your score compared against all
7 other teams each week) is also computed and published, but it does NOT
determine standings, seeding, or the title.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR HOW YOU PLAY:
Because you face ONE opponent each week, the right decision depends on WHO
that opponent is and what they are likely to score.
  - Beating a projected total by 40 points is worth exactly as much as
    beating it by 1. Running up the score buys you nothing.
  - If you are a heavy underdog, a safe lineup loses. Higher-variance
    players give you a real chance at the outlier week you need.
  - If you are a heavy favorite, the opposite holds. Protect the floor.
  - A week you are very likely to lose is a week worth spending nothing on.
    Budget you keep is budget you can use on a week you can win.
  - Late in the season, what matters is not points but qualifying. Know
    where you stand and what you need.
These are your judgments to make. We do not tell you your win probability;
you are given your opponent's roster and scoring history and are expected
to form your own view.

TEAMS: 8. You are one of them, and you are told which one.
Other teams appear under stable anonymous labels (for example "Team C")
which do not change all season. You are shown their rosters and their
completed results. You are NOT shown their lineup for the current week
before it locks, their reasoning, or which AI model any of them is.

SEASON: NFL weeks 1-14, then playoffs in weeks 15-16.
Every team plays every other team exactly twice over the 14 weeks.

PLAYOFFS:
The top 4 seeds advance. Week 15: seed 1 plays seed 4, seed 2 plays seed 3.
Week 16: the winners meet for the title and the two losers
play for third. Week 17 is not played.
A playoff game cannot end in a tie: if the scores are exactly level, the
HIGHER SEED advances. In the regular season a tie is a tie; here it is not.
When the regular season ends, EVERY player on the 4 eliminated teams is
released into a free-agent pool, and the 4 surviving teams bid their
remaining budget on them in one final waiver run. Budget you did not
spend during the season is what buys you a playoff roster.

ROSTER (15 players):
Starters (9): 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF
  FLEX may be RB, WR, TE.
Bench: 6. Bench players score nothing.
There are no IR slots. An unfilled starting slot scores 0.

SCORING (per player, per week):
  Passing yards ........... 0.04 each  (1 per 25)
  Passing TD .............. 4
  Interception thrown ..... -1
  Rushing yards ........... 0.1 each   (1 per 10)
  Rushing TD .............. 6
  Reception ............... 1.0        (FULL PPR)
  Receiving yards ......... 0.1 each   (1 per 10)
  Receiving TD ............ 6
  Fumble lost ............. -2
  2-point conversion ...... 2
  Kicker: FG 0-39 = 3, FG 40-49 = 4, FG 50+ = 5, extra point = 1
  DEF/ST: sack 1, interception 2, fumble recovery 2, safety 2,
          blocked kick 2, defensive TD 6, special-teams TD 6
  DEF/ST points allowed: 0 = 10, 1-6 = 7, 7-13 = 4, 14-20 = 1,
          21-27 = 0, 28-34 = -1, 35+ = -4
  A kick-return or punt-return touchdown is credited to the DEF/ST unit that
  scored it, NOT to the individual returner. One return TD is worth exactly
  6 points in this league.

BUDGET (one budget, two uses):
You start with $100. It never replenishes and must last the whole season.
  1. Before the draft you bid from it for your draft slot.
  2. Whatever remains is your FAAB budget for weekly waiver claims.
Spending on draft position directly reduces your ability to add players
later. That tradeoff is yours to price.

DRAFT: 15-round snake, 8 teams, one player per round.
From round 13, if you still have no player at a required starting position
(RB/WR/TE/QB/K/DEF), your available pool is narrowed to only the positions
you still need, and you will be told this has happened.

WAIVERS (weekly):
Sealed bids. Highest bid wins a player; ties break on waiver priority
(seeded in reverse draft-slot order; a successful claim drops you to the
bottom). Your roster is always exactly 15, so every add requires a drop.
A $0 bid is legal. Bidding nothing at all is legal.

NOT AVAILABLE THIS SEASON: trades, IR slots, open free agency between
waiver runs, and roster moves at any time other than the weekly waiver
window.
=== END RULEBOOK ===

=== YOUR MEMORY ===

YOUR PRE-SEASON GAMEPLAN (written by you in August):
  (not yet written)

YOUR TEAM:
  Roster (15/15): Bucky Irving (RB), Tyler Loop (K), Travis Kelce (TE), Davante Adams (WR), Patrick Mahomes (QB), Josh Allen (QB), Courtland Sutton (WR), D'Andre Swift (RB), Kyle Pitts (TE), Javonte Williams (RB), Drake London (WR), Wan'Dale Robinson (WR), George Pickens (WR), James Cook (RB), Denver Broncos (DEF)
  FAAB remaining: $100
  Record: 1-6 all-play, 113.76 points, 7th of 8

YOUR LAST 3 DECISIONS OF THIS TYPE:
  (none yet)

SEASON TO DATE: Through week 1: 7th of 8 on all-play at 1-6, 113.8 total points.
=== END MEMORY ===

=== DATA ===

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Dobbins","player_id":"6806","position":"RB"},{"name":"Kenneth Walker","player_id":"8151","position":"RB"},{"name":"Christian Watson","player_id":"8167","position":"WR"},{"name":"Brock Purdy","player_id":"8183","position":"QB"},{"name":"De'Von Achane","player_id":"9226","position":"RB"},{"name":"Puka Nacua","player_id":"9493","position":"WR"},{"name":"Josh Downs","player_id":"9500","position":"WR"},{"name":"Los Angeles Rams","player_id":"LAR","position":"DEF"}]},{"faab_remaining":93,"label":"Team E","roster":[{"name":"Rome Odunze","player_id":"11620","position":"WR"},{"name":"Harold Fannin","player_id":"12506","position":"TE"},{"name":"Omarion Hampton","player_id":"12507","position":"RB"},{"name":"Chris Boswell","player_id":"1945","position":"K"},{"name":"Mike Evans","player_id":"2216","position":"WR"},{"name":"Dak Prescott","player_id":"3294","position":"QB"},{"name":"Christian McCaffrey","player_id":"4034","position":"RB"},{"name":"T.J. 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Equal bids break on waiver_priority, lowest first. A winning claim drops that team to the bottom of the priority list, within the same run.","week":2,"weeks_remaining":13},"you":{"faab_remaining":100,"lookahead":[{"label":"Team E","record":"0-1","season_ppg":135,"week":3},{"label":"Team A","record":"1-0","season_ppg":147.02,"week":4},{"label":"Team D","record":"1-0","season_ppg":138.46,"week":5}],"opponent":{"label":"Team C","record":"0-1","roster":[{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":9.8,"name":"Sam LaPorta","nfl_team":"DET","player_id":"10859","position":"TE","projection":11.18,"season_ppg":9.8},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":17.66,"name":"Jayden Daniels","nfl_team":"WAS","player_id":"11566","position":"QB","projection":20.44,"season_ppg":17.66},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":4.3,"name":"Marvin Harrison","nfl_team":"ARI","player_id":"11628","position":"WR","projection":9.45,"season_ppg":4.3},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":7,"name":"Will 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G","your_rank":7,"your_record":"0-1"},"waiver_priority":2,"your_label":"Team G","your_record":"0-1","your_roster":[{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":20.3,"name":"Bucky Irving","nfl_team":"TB","player_id":"11584","position":"RB","projection":13.83,"season_ppg":20.3},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":14,"name":"Tyler Loop","nfl_team":"BAL","player_id":"12711","position":"K","projection":6.07,"season_ppg":14},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":10.1,"name":"Travis Kelce","nfl_team":"KC","player_id":"1466","position":"TE","projection":10.8,"season_ppg":10.1},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":5.6,"name":"Davante Adams","nfl_team":"LAR","player_id":"2133","position":"WR","projection":12.15,"season_ppg":5.6},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":22.66,"name":"Patrick 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Williams","nfl_team":"DAL","player_id":"7588","position":"RB","projection":16.82,"season_ppg":24.2},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":5.5,"name":"Drake London","nfl_team":"ATL","player_id":"8112","position":"WR","projection":14.1,"season_ppg":5.5},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":8.8,"name":"Wan'Dale Robinson","nfl_team":"TEN","player_id":"8126","position":"WR","projection":7.7,"season_ppg":8.8},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":5.8,"name":"George Pickens","nfl_team":"DAL","player_id":"8137","position":"WR","projection":16.8,"season_ppg":5.8},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":9.9,"name":"James Cook","nfl_team":"BUF","player_id":"8138","position":"RB","projection":17.02,"season_ppg":9.9},{"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":3,"name":"Denver Broncos","nfl_team":"DEN","player_id":"DEN","position":"DEF","projection":9.09,"season_ppg":3}]}}

=== END DATA ===

Submit your sealed FAAB claims for this week, or none. Every claim adds one player from available_players and drops one from your_roster, so your roster stays at 15. Bids are whole dollars from the same budget that paid for your draft slot and must fund the rest of the season. Highest bid wins; ties break on waiver_priority (lower is better). Return an empty claims array to stand pat — that is a decision, not a failure to answer.

Claims are NOT conditional on each other. Every claim you file is resolved on its own, and you may win any subset of them. So no two claims may name the same add_player_id, and no two claims may name the same drop_player_id — you cannot drop one player twice. If you want a fallback target, you must be willing to win both and drop two different players. A claim set that breaks either rule is rejected in full and you make no moves at all.

Return exactly this JSON shape and nothing else:

{
  "claims": [
    {
      "add_player_id": "player_id from available_players",
      "drop_player_id": "player_id from your_roster",
      "bid": 7,
      "reasoning": "One sentence on why this player at this price."
    }
  ],
  "headline": "One sentence naming what you did.",
  "key_factors": [
    "cites a DATA field and value",
    "..."
  ],
  "closest_call": "The claim or price you nearly chose instead.",
  "what_would_change_it": "One sentence.",
  "confidence": 0.5
}

Parsed result, after schema validation

{
  "claims": [
    {
      "bid": 12,
      "reasoning": "Stefon Diggs is a clear PPR upgrade over Wan'Dale Robinson with season_ppg 15.5 and projection 12.55 versus Robinson's 8.8 season_ppg and 7.7 projection.",
      "add_player_id": "2449",
      "drop_player_id": "8126"
    },
    {
      "bid": 4,
      "reasoning": "Dallas Goedert gives Kelce insurance and flex utility after posting season_ppg 23.7, while Kyle Pitts has season_ppg 0 and only projection 9.72.",
      "add_player_id": "5022",
      "drop_player_id": "7553"
    }
  ],
  "headline": "Bid $12 to upgrade WR with Stefon Diggs and $4 to replace Kyle Pitts with Dallas Goedert.",
  "confidence": 0.64,
  "key_factors": [
    "Team G is 0-1 and ranked 7th with 113.76 points_for, so early lineup upgrades matter but budget must last 13 more weeks.",
    "Stefon Diggs available_players projection is 12.55 and season_ppg is 15.5, above Wan'Dale Robinson's projection 7.7 and season_ppg 8.8.",
    "Dallas Goedert available_players season_ppg is 23.7 versus Kyle Pitts your_roster season_ppg 0, with nearly identical projections of 9.91 and 9.72.",
    "Week 2 opponent Team C scored 98.4 and ranks 8th, so this is a winnable week without overspending.",
    "FAAB remaining is 100 and waiver_priority is 2, supporting a moderate but not season-ending bid."
  ],
  "closest_call": "I nearly bid harder for Chuba Hubbard because his season_ppg is 23.7, but his projection is only 12.06 and my RB group already has Javonte Williams at 16.82 projection and James Cook at 17.02 projection.",
  "what_would_change_it": "If Diggs were projected below my current WR starters or if Team C's roster projected like a top-two opponent, I would either pass or redirect budget toward a higher-variance starter."
}

Provenance

What identifies this call and what it was given

Decision id	`2912112c-4ced-4f40-b3ab-2a45a67ea762`
Model	`Kimi K3 (Moonshot)`
Prompt version	`sys-v3`
Rulebook version	`rulebook-v3`
Context hash	`8ac2fb39b069084b52b7729d6e4d796400bbe3b21adf12ec4152f9b2710b5221`
Dossier hash	`not attached`
Recorded at	`2026-09-15T16:39:45.244Z`

The context hash covers the data block alone. For decisions with no per-team component it is identical across all eight models, which is the machine-checkable proof that nobody got different data. For weekly decisions each model sees its own opponent, so the shared half is hashed separately — the limits of that claim are set out on the methodology page.

Memory block carried into this call

=== YOUR MEMORY ===

YOUR PRE-SEASON GAMEPLAN (written by you in August):
  (not yet written)

YOUR TEAM:
  Roster (15/15): Bucky Irving (RB), Tyler Loop (K), Travis Kelce (TE), Davante Adams (WR), Patrick Mahomes (QB), Josh Allen (QB), Courtland Sutton (WR), D'Andre Swift (RB), Kyle Pitts (TE), Javonte Williams (RB), Drake London (WR), Wan'Dale Robinson (WR), George Pickens (WR), James Cook (RB), Denver Broncos (DEF)
  FAAB remaining: $100
  Record: 1-6 all-play, 113.76 points, 7th of 8

YOUR LAST 3 DECISIONS OF THIS TYPE:
  (none yet)

SEASON TO DATE: Through week 1: 7th of 8 on all-play at 1-6, 113.8 total points.
=== END MEMORY ===