Grok 4.6

waiver · week 7

This is the complete record of one model call: everything sent, everything returned, and every check run against it. Nothing is summarised or edited.

Outcome

VALID

Parsed cleanly against the schema on this attempt.

Tokens

13311 → 10856

10316 of the output was reasoning

Cost

$0.0916

141.6s latency

Temperature

0.2

Requested identically for all eight models

What it said

Structured reasoning, exactly as returned

Grok 4.6waiverstated confidence 0.68

Dropped dead kicker Mevis for Jacksonville as a second DEF to start over PHI this week.

Key factors

Opponent Team A has Fairbairn is_on_bye true projection 0, Nabers is_on_bye true projection 0, Hurts injury_status IR projection 0, Love injury_status Out, and DJ Moore injury_status Out, so their season_ppg 130.27 overstates this week and I am the favorite (protect the floor).
Philadelphia Eagles projection 7.87, last3_ppg 2.67, season_ppg 2.75 versus Jacksonville Jaguars projection 9.54, last3_ppg 3.33, season_ppg 7.
Harrison Mevis projection 0 and nfl_team null, so the drop does not touch a starter.
Team B roster includes Houston Texans and HOU is in nfl_teams_on_bye, with faab_remaining 3, so a $4 bid is the minimum that always beats their max DEF bid.
you.faab_remaining 22 and weeks_remaining 7, so a $4 stream leaves $18 for the rest of the regular season.

Closest call. Adding Jacoby Brissett (projection 19.16) over Daniels (projection 17.94) by dropping Mevis, or bidding $0 on JAX, or taking CIN DEF (season_ppg 9.17, last3_ppg 7.67) for floor instead of JAX's projection.

What would have changed it. If Team A's bye/injury zeros were not in the data and I were the underdog, I would have bid on Josh Jacobs (projection 15.47, last3_ppg 6.7) for variance instead of a floor DEF.

Automated checks

Deterministic string and number matching — never a model call

Fields cited

RULEBOOKfaab_remaininginjury_statusis_on_byelast3_ppgnfl_teamnfl_teams_on_byeopponentprojectionrosterseason_ppgweekweeks_remainingyou

Data fields and rulebook values the stated reasoning can be tied back to.

Claims not tied to the data

you.faab_remaining 22 and weeks_remaining 7, so a $4 stream leaves $18 for the rest of the regular season. — value(s) not in DATA: 18

Advisory only. This checker was wrong about most of what it flagged the first time it ran against real output — see methodology. Read these as prompts to go and look, not as verdicts.

Formatting notes

key_factors: 5 (max 4)
key_factors[0]: 42 words (max 20)
key_factors[3]: 28 words (max 20)

Cosmetic deviations from the bounded schema. Deliberately kept separate from the column above, and they never trigger a fallback — reporting a model as having failed over formatting would misstate what happened.

Everything sent and returned

Unedited · the response is stored before any parsing or repair

Raw response, exactly as the model emitted it

{
  "claims": [
    {
      "add_player_id": "JAX",
      "drop_player_id": "12015",
      "bid": 4,
      "reasoning": "JAX DEF projection 9.54 upgrades a PHI unit at last3_ppg 2.67/season_ppg 2.75 while Mevis is a projection-0 dead roster spot, and $4 beats Team B's entire $3 FAAB after their HOU DEF bye."
    }
  ],
  "headline": "Dropped dead kicker Mevis for Jacksonville as a second DEF to start over PHI this week.",
  "key_factors": [
    "Opponent Team A has Fairbairn is_on_bye true projection 0, Nabers is_on_bye true projection 0, Hurts injury_status IR projection 0, Love injury_status Out, and DJ Moore injury_status Out, so their season_ppg 130.27 overstates this week and I am the favorite (protect the floor).",
    "Philadelphia Eagles projection 7.87, last3_ppg 2.67, season_ppg 2.75 versus Jacksonville Jaguars projection 9.54, last3_ppg 3.33, season_ppg 7.",
    "Harrison Mevis projection 0 and nfl_team null, so the drop does not touch a starter.",
    "Team B roster includes Houston Texans and HOU is in nfl_teams_on_bye, with faab_remaining 3, so a $4 bid is the minimum that always beats their max DEF bid.",
    "you.faab_remaining 22 and weeks_remaining 7, so a $4 stream leaves $18 for the rest of the regular season."
  ],
  "closest_call": "Adding Jacoby Brissett (projection 19.16) over Daniels (projection 17.94) by dropping Mevis, or bidding $0 on JAX, or taking CIN DEF (season_ppg 9.17, last3_ppg 7.67) for floor instead of JAX's projection.",
  "what_would_change_it": "If Team A's bye/injury zeros were not in the data and I were the underdog, I would have bid on Josh Jacobs (projection 15.47, last3_ppg 6.7) for variance instead of a floor DEF.",
  "confidence": 0.68
}

System prompt (sys-v3)

You are a fantasy football manager running one team for a full season.
You commit to choices and back them with the data provided.

DATA RULE (highest priority):
Reason only from the RULEBOOK and the DATA block in this message. Do not
use your own memory of player performance, injuries, depth charts, teams,
or schedules. Your training data is out of date for this NFL season. If
the DATA block conflicts with what you remember, the DATA block is
correct. If a field is null, treat it as unknown.

RULES:
1. Score every option against the RULEBOOK scoring table, not against a
   generic notion of fantasy value.
2. Optimize for the OBJECTIVE stated in the RULEBOOK. Nothing else.
3. Weigh projection, recent form, matchup, and injury status.
4. Commit to a specific choice. No ranges, no hedging.
5. Ground every claim in a specific DATA or RULEBOOK field. Cite the field
   and its value. Do not assert anything the data does not support.
6. Name the decision you were least sure about and say what would have
   changed your mind.

OUTPUT RULE:
Return only a single JSON object matching the schema. No preamble, no
markdown, no code fences.

User prompt — rulebook, memory and data block (36,774 characters)

=== LEAGUE RULEBOOK rulebook-v3 ===

OBJECTIVE (this is what you are optimizing):
WIN THE LEAGUE. That is three things, in order:
  1. Win your weekly head-to-head matchup. Each week you are paired against
     exactly one other team. Whoever scores more points wins. A tie is a tie.
  2. Finish in the top 4 of 8 after week 14 to reach the playoffs.
     Seeding is head-to-head record; ties break on cumulative total points.
  3. Win the 2-week playoff bracket.
Nothing else ranks you. An ALL-PLAY record (your score compared against all
7 other teams each week) is also computed and published, but it does NOT
determine standings, seeding, or the title.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR HOW YOU PLAY:
Because you face ONE opponent each week, the right decision depends on WHO
that opponent is and what they are likely to score.
  - Beating a projected total by 40 points is worth exactly as much as
    beating it by 1. Running up the score buys you nothing.
  - If you are a heavy underdog, a safe lineup loses. Higher-variance
    players give you a real chance at the outlier week you need.
  - If you are a heavy favorite, the opposite holds. Protect the floor.
  - A week you are very likely to lose is a week worth spending nothing on.
    Budget you keep is budget you can use on a week you can win.
  - Late in the season, what matters is not points but qualifying. Know
    where you stand and what you need.
These are your judgments to make. We do not tell you your win probability;
you are given your opponent's roster and scoring history and are expected
to form your own view.

TEAMS: 8. You are one of them, and you are told which one.
Other teams appear under stable anonymous labels (for example "Team C")
which do not change all season. You are shown their rosters and their
completed results. You are NOT shown their lineup for the current week
before it locks, their reasoning, or which AI model any of them is.

SEASON: NFL weeks 1-14, then playoffs in weeks 15-16.
Every team plays every other team exactly twice over the 14 weeks.

PLAYOFFS:
The top 4 seeds advance. Week 15: seed 1 plays seed 4, seed 2 plays seed 3.
Week 16: the winners meet for the title and the two losers
play for third. Week 17 is not played.
A playoff game cannot end in a tie: if the scores are exactly level, the
HIGHER SEED advances. In the regular season a tie is a tie; here it is not.
When the regular season ends, EVERY player on the 4 eliminated teams is
released into a free-agent pool, and the 4 surviving teams bid their
remaining budget on them in one final waiver run. Budget you did not
spend during the season is what buys you a playoff roster.

ROSTER (15 players):
Starters (9): 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF
  FLEX may be RB, WR, TE.
Bench: 6. Bench players score nothing.
There are no IR slots. An unfilled starting slot scores 0.

SCORING (per player, per week):
  Passing yards ........... 0.04 each  (1 per 25)
  Passing TD .............. 4
  Interception thrown ..... -1
  Rushing yards ........... 0.1 each   (1 per 10)
  Rushing TD .............. 6
  Reception ............... 1.0        (FULL PPR)
  Receiving yards ......... 0.1 each   (1 per 10)
  Receiving TD ............ 6
  Fumble lost ............. -2
  2-point conversion ...... 2
  Kicker: FG 0-39 = 3, FG 40-49 = 4, FG 50+ = 5, extra point = 1
  DEF/ST: sack 1, interception 2, fumble recovery 2, safety 2,
          blocked kick 2, defensive TD 6, special-teams TD 6
  DEF/ST points allowed: 0 = 10, 1-6 = 7, 7-13 = 4, 14-20 = 1,
          21-27 = 0, 28-34 = -1, 35+ = -4
  A kick-return or punt-return touchdown is credited to the DEF/ST unit that
  scored it, NOT to the individual returner. One return TD is worth exactly
  6 points in this league.

BUDGET (one budget, two uses):
You start with $100. It never replenishes and must last the whole season.
  1. Before the draft you bid from it for your draft slot.
  2. Whatever remains is your FAAB budget for weekly waiver claims.
Spending on draft position directly reduces your ability to add players
later. That tradeoff is yours to price.

DRAFT: 15-round snake, 8 teams, one player per round.
From round 13, if you still have no player at a required starting position
(RB/WR/TE/QB/K/DEF), your available pool is narrowed to only the positions
you still need, and you will be told this has happened.

WAIVERS (weekly):
Sealed bids. Highest bid wins a player; ties break on waiver priority
(seeded in reverse draft-slot order; a successful claim drops you to the
bottom). Your roster is always exactly 15, so every add requires a drop.
A $0 bid is legal. Bidding nothing at all is legal.

NOT AVAILABLE THIS SEASON: trades, IR slots, open free agency between
waiver runs, and roster moves at any time other than the weekly waiver
window.
=== END RULEBOOK ===

=== YOUR MEMORY ===

YOUR PRE-SEASON GAMEPLAN (written by you in August):
  (not yet written)

YOUR TEAM:
  Roster (15/15): Sam LaPorta (TE), Jayden Daniels (QB), Will Reichard (K), Harrison Mevis (K), Quinshon Judkins (RB), Matthew Stafford (QB), CeeDee Lamb (WR), Tee Higgins (WR), Ja'Marr Chase (WR), Chuba Hubbard (RB), Wan'Dale Robinson (WR), Isaiah Likely (TE), Kyren Williams (RB), Parker Washington (WR), Philadelphia Eagles (DEF)
  FAAB remaining: $22
  Record: 24-25 all-play, 858.4 points, 7th of 8

YOUR LAST 3 DECISIONS OF THIS TYPE:
  Week 6: Spent $4 to dump Mevis and a cold Eagles D for Harvey and Cleveland.
    Closest call: Adding Kyler Murray (projection 20.35) over Stafford (projection 17.54) by dropping Mevis, or a $0 Harvey bid.
  Week 5: Streamed Mevis for the MIN kicker bye and added Wan'Dale so the CIN WR byes and Questionable Lamb cannot zero a starting slot.
    Closest call: Adding Woody Marks (player_id 12474, projection 13.61) as a FLEX upgrade instead of Wan'Dale, or dropping Quinshon Judkins instead of Bryce Young.
  Week 4: Spent $18 FAAB on Matthew Stafford and dropped Drew Lock to fill a QB zero this week.
    Closest call: Bidding $18 on Jacoby Brissett (projection 18.32) instead of Stafford, or adding a $6 Aaron Jones claim dropping Barkley (injury_status Out, season_ppg 5.75).

SEASON TO DATE: Through week 7: 7th of 8 on all-play at 24-25, 858.4 total points.
=== END MEMORY ===

=== DATA ===

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Darnold","nfl_team":"SEA","player_id":"4943","position":"QB","projection":16.31,"season_ppg":13.8},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":15.78,"name":"Caleb Williams","nfl_team":"CHI","player_id":"11560","position":"QB","projection":15.91,"season_ppg":21.15},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":6.7,"name":"Josh Jacobs","nfl_team":"GB","player_id":"5850","position":"RB","projection":15.47,"season_ppg":2.87},{"injury_detail":{"body_part":"Back","notes":null,"practice":null,"practice_note":null,"since":null},"injury_status":"Questionable","is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":8.7,"name":"Saquon Barkley","nfl_team":"PHI","player_id":"4866","position":"RB","projection":15.31,"season_ppg":7.62},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":19.31,"name":"Michael Penix Jr.","nfl_team":"ATL","player_id":"11559","position":"QB","projection":15.17,"season_ppg":17.14},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":8.05,"name":"Tanner McKee","nfl_team":"PHI","player_id":"9230","position":"QB","projection":14.51,"season_ppg":6.04},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":6.84,"name":"Cam Ward","nfl_team":"TEN","player_id":"12522","position":"QB","projection":14.15,"season_ppg":11.32},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":16.47,"name":"Malik Willis","nfl_team":"MIA","player_id":"8161","position":"QB","projection":13.91,"season_ppg":15.1},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":13.63,"name":"Deshaun Watson","nfl_team":"CLE","player_id":"4017","position":"QB","projection":13.67,"season_ppg":15.68},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":10.85,"name":"Justin Herbert","nfl_team":"LAC","player_id":"6797","position":"QB","projection":13.45,"season_ppg":11.74},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":10.49,"name":"Daniel Jones","nfl_team":"IND","player_id":"5870","position":"QB","projection":11.94,"season_ppg":10.25},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":2.27,"name":"Jordan Mason","nfl_team":"MIN","player_id":"8408","position":"RB","projection":10.88,"season_ppg":3.12},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":9.93,"name":"Rachaad White","nfl_team":"WAS","player_id":"8136","position":"RB","projection":10.6,"season_ppg":9.76},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":8.43,"name":"Jakobi Meyers","nfl_team":"JAX","player_id":"5947","position":"WR","projection":10.19,"season_ppg":10.12},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":8.7,"name":"Omarion Hampton","nfl_team":"LAC","player_id":"12507","position":"RB","projection":10.17,"season_ppg":9.58},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":7.6,"name":"Rome Odunze","nfl_team":"CHI","player_id":"11620","position":"WR","projection":10.16,"season_ppg":8.59},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":2.97,"name":"Jonah Coleman","nfl_team":"DEN","player_id":"13345","position":"RB","projection":10.1,"season_ppg":3.39},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":15.27,"name":"Germie Bernard","nfl_team":"PIT","player_id":"13274","position":"WR","projection":10.06,"season_ppg":8.4},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":14.93,"name":"Omar Cooper Jr.","nfl_team":"NYJ","player_id":"13276","position":"WR","projection":9.81,"season_ppg":6.97},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":2.73,"name":"Jake Ferguson","nfl_team":"DAL","player_id":"8110","position":"TE","projection":9.8,"season_ppg":6.36},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":10.67,"name":"Cam Little","nfl_team":"JAX","player_id":"11786","position":"K","projection":9.7,"season_ppg":9.5},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":8.53,"name":"Kendrick Bourne","nfl_team":"ARI","player_id":"4454","position":"WR","projection":9.61,"season_ppg":6.91},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":14.1,"name":"Hunter Henry","nfl_team":"NE","player_id":"3214","position":"TE","projection":9.6,"season_ppg":9.66},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":3.33,"name":"Jacksonville Jaguars","nfl_team":"JAX","player_id":"JAX","position":"DEF","projection":9.54,"season_ppg":7},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":18.5,"name":"Tre 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Sr.","nfl_team":"ATL","player_id":"7553","position":"TE","projection":8.51,"season_ppg":9.01},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":9,"name":"Matt Gay","nfl_team":"LV","player_id":"6083","position":"K","projection":8.49,"season_ppg":10.43},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":6.97,"name":"Tyler Higbee","nfl_team":"LAR","player_id":"3271","position":"TE","projection":8.42,"season_ppg":7.71},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":6.07,"name":"AJ Barner","nfl_team":"SEA","player_id":"11603","position":"TE","projection":8.39,"season_ppg":6.21},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":6.33,"name":"Pittsburgh Steelers","nfl_team":"PIT","player_id":"PIT","position":"DEF","projection":8.38,"season_ppg":7.71},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":12.67,"name":"Tyler Bass","nfl_team":"BUF","player_id":"7042","position":"K","projection":8.32,"season_ppg":10.33},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":11,"name":"Chad Ryland","nfl_team":"ARI","player_id":"10955","position":"K","projection":8.27,"season_ppg":10.29},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":2.3,"name":"Cade Otton","nfl_team":"TB","player_id":"8111","position":"TE","projection":8.18,"season_ppg":5.37},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":5.77,"name":"Tyler Allgeier","nfl_team":"ARI","player_id":"8132","position":"RB","projection":7.95,"season_ppg":6.86},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":7.67,"name":"Cincinnati Bengals","nfl_team":"CIN","player_id":"CIN","position":"DEF","projection":7.81,"season_ppg":9.17},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":8,"name":"Harrison 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The DATA RULE forbids recalling what happened to a specific player from memory; it does not forbid general knowledge of what an injury type usually means. The feed rarely reports practice participation, so a null practice field means \"not reported\", never \"practised fully\". injury_detail is null when the feed has nothing beyond injury_status."},"league_rosters":[{"faab_remaining":74,"label":"Team A","roster":[{"name":"Bo Nix","player_id":"11563","position":"QB"},{"name":"Malik Nabers","player_id":"11632","position":"WR"},{"name":"Colston Loveland","player_id":"12517","position":"TE"},{"name":"Tetairoa McMillan","player_id":"12526","position":"WR"},{"name":"Carnell Tate","player_id":"13279","position":"WR"},{"name":"Jeremiyah Love","player_id":"13287","position":"RB"},{"name":"Derrick Henry","player_id":"3198","position":"RB"},{"name":"Ka'imi Fairbairn","player_id":"3451","position":"K"},{"name":"Chris Godwin Jr.","player_id":"4037","position":"WR"},{"name":"DJ Moore","player_id":"4983","position":"WR"},{"name":"Jalen Hurts","player_id":"6904","position":"QB"},{"name":"Jahmyr Gibbs","player_id":"9221","position":"RB"},{"name":"Brenton Strange","player_id":"9480","position":"TE"},{"name":"Kansas City Chiefs","player_id":"KC","position":"DEF"},{"name":"Minnesota Vikings","player_id":"MIN","position":"DEF"}]},{"faab_remaining":3,"label":"Team B","roster":[{"name":"Brock Bowers","player_id":"11604","position":"TE"},{"name":"Jalen Coker","player_id":"11646","position":"WR"},{"name":"Spencer Shrader","player_id":"12185","position":"K"},{"name":"Cam Skattebo","player_id":"12481","position":"RB"},{"name":"TreVeyon Henderson","player_id":"12529","position":"RB"},{"name":"Kyle Monangai","player_id":"12534","position":"RB"},{"name":"Jordan Love","player_id":"6804","position":"QB"},{"name":"Juwan Johnson","player_id":"7002","position":"TE"},{"name":"Trevor Lawrence","player_id":"7523","position":"QB"},{"name":"Jaylen Waddle","player_id":"7526","position":"WR"},{"name":"Nico Collins","player_id":"7569","position":"WR"},{"name":"Chase Brown","player_id":"9224","position":"RB"},{"name":"Bijan Robinson","player_id":"9509","position":"RB"},{"name":"Zay Flowers","player_id":"9997","position":"WR"},{"name":"Houston Texans","player_id":"HOU","position":"DEF"}]},{"faab_remaining":22,"label":"Team C","roster":[{"name":"Sam LaPorta","player_id":"10859","position":"TE"},{"name":"Jayden Daniels","player_id":"11566","position":"QB"},{"name":"Will Reichard","player_id":"11792","position":"K"},{"name":"Harrison Mevis","player_id":"12015","position":"K"},{"name":"Quinshon Judkins","player_id":"12512","position":"RB"},{"name":"Matthew Stafford","player_id":"421","position":"QB"},{"name":"CeeDee Lamb","player_id":"6786","position":"WR"},{"name":"Tee Higgins","player_id":"6801","position":"WR"},{"name":"Ja'Marr Chase","player_id":"7564","position":"WR"},{"name":"Chuba Hubbard","player_id":"7594","position":"RB"},{"name":"Wan'Dale Robinson","player_id":"8126","position":"WR"},{"name":"Isaiah Likely","player_id":"8131","position":"TE"},{"name":"Kyren Williams","player_id":"8150","position":"RB"},{"name":"Parker Washington","player_id":"9487","position":"WR"},{"name":"Philadelphia Eagles","player_id":"PHI","position":"DEF"}]},{"faab_remaining":91,"label":"Team D","roster":[{"name":"Dalton Kincaid","player_id":"10236","position":"TE"},{"name":"Ladd McConkey","player_id":"11635","position":"WR"},{"name":"Ollie Gordon II","player_id":"12495","position":"RB"},{"name":"Tyler Warren","player_id":"12518","position":"TE"},{"name":"Luther Burden III","player_id":"12519","position":"WR"},{"name":"Trey Smack","player_id":"13545","position":"K"},{"name":"Dallas Goedert","player_id":"5022","position":"TE"},{"name":"Joe Burrow","player_id":"6770","position":"QB"},{"name":"J.K. Dobbins","player_id":"6806","position":"RB"},{"name":"Kenneth Walker III","player_id":"8151","position":"RB"},{"name":"Christian Watson","player_id":"8167","position":"WR"},{"name":"Brock Purdy","player_id":"8183","position":"QB"},{"name":"Puka Nacua","player_id":"9493","position":"WR"},{"name":"Josh Downs","player_id":"9500","position":"WR"},{"name":"Los Angeles Rams","player_id":"LAR","position":"DEF"}]},{"faab_remaining":74,"label":"Team E","roster":[{"name":"Rashee Rice","player_id":"10229","position":"WR"},{"name":"Brandon Aubrey","player_id":"11533","position":"K"},{"name":"Bhayshul Tuten","player_id":"12490","position":"RB"},{"name":"Matthew Golden","player_id":"12501","position":"WR"},{"name":"Harold Fannin Jr.","player_id":"12506","position":"TE"},{"name":"Dak Prescott","player_id":"3294","position":"QB"},{"name":"Christian McCaffrey","player_id":"4034","position":"RB"},{"name":"T.J. Hockenson","player_id":"5844","position":"TE"},{"name":"Tony Pollard","player_id":"5967","position":"RB"},{"name":"Amon-Ra St. Brown","player_id":"7547","position":"WR"},{"name":"Rhamondre Stevenson","player_id":"7611","position":"RB"},{"name":"Chris Olave","player_id":"8144","position":"WR"},{"name":"Garrett Wilson","player_id":"8146","position":"WR"},{"name":"Bryce Young","player_id":"9228","position":"QB"},{"name":"Seattle Seahawks","player_id":"SEA","position":"DEF"}]},{"faab_remaining":17,"label":"Team F","roster":[{"name":"Michael Wilson","player_id":"10232","position":"WR"},{"name":"Emanuel Wilson","player_id":"11435","position":"RB"},{"name":"Drake Maye","player_id":"11564","position":"QB"},{"name":"Woody Marks","player_id":"12474","position":"RB"},{"name":"Ashton Jeanty","player_id":"12527","position":"RB"},{"name":"Chris Boswell","player_id":"1945","position":"K"},{"name":"Jared Goff","player_id":"3163","position":"QB"},{"name":"George Kittle","player_id":"4217","position":"TE"},{"name":"Mark Andrews","player_id":"5012","position":"TE"},{"name":"Terry McLaurin","player_id":"5927","position":"WR"},{"name":"Justin Jefferson","player_id":"6794","position":"WR"},{"name":"Jameson Williams","player_id":"8148","position":"WR"},{"name":"Breece Hall","player_id":"8155","position":"RB"},{"name":"Jaxon Smith-Njigba","player_id":"9488","position":"WR"},{"name":"Cleveland Browns","player_id":"CLE","position":"DEF"}]},{"faab_remaining":67,"label":"Team G","roster":[{"name":"Bucky Irving","player_id":"11584","position":"RB"},{"name":"Tyler Loop","player_id":"12711","position":"K"},{"name":"Denzel Boston","player_id":"13346","position":"WR"},{"name":"Travis Kelce","player_id":"1466","position":"TE"},{"name":"Stefon Diggs","player_id":"2449","position":"WR"},{"name":"Patrick Mahomes","player_id":"4046","position":"QB"},{"name":"Josh Allen","player_id":"4984","position":"QB"},{"name":"Courtland Sutton","player_id":"5045","position":"WR"},{"name":"D'Andre Swift","player_id":"6790","position":"RB"},{"name":"Javonte Williams","player_id":"7588","position":"RB"},{"name":"Drake London","player_id":"8112","position":"WR"},{"name":"George Pickens","player_id":"8137","position":"WR"},{"name":"James Cook III","player_id":"8138","position":"RB"},{"name":"Tucker Kraft","player_id":"9484","position":"TE"},{"name":"Denver Broncos","player_id":"DEN","position":"DEF"}]},{"faab_remaining":27,"label":"Team H","roster":[{"name":"RJ Harvey","player_id":"12489","position":"RB"},{"name":"Emeka Egbuka","player_id":"12514","position":"WR"},{"name":"Aaron Jones Sr.","player_id":"4199","position":"RB"},{"name":"Lamar Jackson","player_id":"4881","position":"QB"},{"name":"DK Metcalf","player_id":"5846","position":"WR"},{"name":"Kyler Murray","player_id":"5849","position":"QB"},{"name":"A.J. 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Equal bids break on waiver_priority, lowest first. A winning claim drops that team to the bottom of the priority list, within the same run.","week":8,"weeks_remaining":7},"you":{"faab_remaining":22,"lookahead":[{"label":"Team G","record":"4-3","season_ppg":132.05,"week":9},{"label":"Team H","record":"2-5","season_ppg":112.41,"week":10},{"label":"Team F","record":"5-2","season_ppg":119.86,"week":11}],"opponent":{"label":"Team A","record":"5-2","roster":[{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":15.54,"name":"Bo Nix","nfl_team":"DEN","player_id":"11563","position":"QB","projection":14.13,"season_ppg":13.64},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":true,"last3_ppg":19.97,"name":"Malik Nabers","nfl_team":"NYG","player_id":"11632","position":"WR","projection":0,"season_ppg":14.78},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":6.7,"name":"Colston 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Vikings","nfl_team":"MIN","player_id":"MIN","position":"DEF","projection":7.96,"season_ppg":12.5}],"score_volatility":20.18,"season_ppg":130.27,"weekly_scores":[147.02,100.56,138.32,157.76,139.32,102.5,126.38]},"playoff_round":null,"standing":{"games_back_of_cutoff":2,"playoff_spots":4,"points_for":858.4,"table":[{"label":"Team A","points_for":911.86,"rank":1,"record":"5-2"},{"label":"Team F","points_for":839,"rank":2,"record":"5-2"},{"label":"Team G","points_for":924.36,"rank":3,"record":"4-3"},{"label":"Team D","points_for":869.02,"rank":4,"record":"4-3"},{"label":"Team E","points_for":896.08,"rank":5,"record":"3-4"},{"label":"Team B","points_for":777.8,"rank":6,"record":"3-4"},{"label":"Team C","points_for":858.4,"rank":7,"record":"2-5"},{"label":"Team H","points_for":786.86,"rank":8,"record":"2-5"}],"weeks_remaining":7,"your_label":"Team C","your_rank":7,"your_record":"2-5"},"waiver_priority":2,"your_label":"Team C","your_record":"2-5","your_roster":[{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":15.67,"name":"Sam LaPorta","nfl_team":"DET","player_id":"10859","position":"TE","projection":11.04,"season_ppg":14.2},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":21.55,"name":"Jayden Daniels","nfl_team":"WAS","player_id":"11566","position":"QB","projection":17.94,"season_ppg":21.55},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":15,"name":"Will Reichard","nfl_team":"MIN","player_id":"11792","position":"K","projection":9.73,"season_ppg":13},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":9,"name":"Harrison Mevis","nfl_team":null,"player_id":"12015","position":"K","projection":0,"season_ppg":7},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":13.17,"name":"Quinshon Judkins","nfl_team":"CLE","player_id":"12512","position":"RB","projection":9.63,"season_ppg":11.26},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":20.63,"name":"Matthew Stafford","nfl_team":"LAR","player_id":"421","position":"QB","projection":15.95,"season_ppg":19},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":21.47,"name":"CeeDee Lamb","nfl_team":"DAL","player_id":"6786","position":"WR","projection":21.4,"season_ppg":23.02},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":17.3,"name":"Tee Higgins","nfl_team":"CIN","player_id":"6801","position":"WR","projection":15.96,"season_ppg":15.06},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":16.73,"name":"Ja'Marr Chase","nfl_team":"CIN","player_id":"7564","position":"WR","projection":19.85,"season_ppg":15.98},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":18.43,"name":"Chuba Hubbard","nfl_team":"CAR","player_id":"7594","position":"RB","projection":16.89,"season_ppg":19.75},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":13.67,"name":"Wan'Dale Robinson","nfl_team":"TEN","player_id":"8126","position":"WR","projection":11.08,"season_ppg":10.34},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":true,"last3_ppg":16.43,"name":"Isaiah Likely","nfl_team":"NYG","player_id":"8131","position":"TE","projection":0,"season_ppg":17.08},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":26.03,"name":"Kyren Williams","nfl_team":"LAR","player_id":"8150","position":"RB","projection":19.71,"season_ppg":21.86},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":15.13,"name":"Parker Washington","nfl_team":"JAX","player_id":"9487","position":"WR","projection":15.66,"season_ppg":16.3},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":2.67,"name":"Philadelphia Eagles","nfl_team":"PHI","player_id":"PHI","position":"DEF","projection":7.87,"season_ppg":2.75}]}}

=== END DATA ===

Submit your sealed FAAB claims for this week, or none. Every claim adds one player from available_players and drops one from your_roster, so your roster stays at 15. Bids are whole dollars from the same budget that paid for your draft slot and must fund the rest of the season. Highest bid wins; ties break on waiver_priority (lower is better). Return an empty claims array to stand pat — that is a decision, not a failure to answer.

Claims are NOT conditional on each other. Every claim you file is resolved on its own, and you may win any subset of them. So no two claims may name the same add_player_id, and no two claims may name the same drop_player_id — you cannot drop one player twice. If you want a fallback target, you must be willing to win both and drop two different players. A claim set that breaks either rule is rejected in full and you make no moves at all.

Return exactly this JSON shape and nothing else:

{
  "claims": [
    {
      "add_player_id": "player_id from available_players",
      "drop_player_id": "player_id from your_roster",
      "bid": 7,
      "reasoning": "One sentence on why this player at this price."
    }
  ],
  "headline": "One sentence naming what you did.",
  "key_factors": [
    "cites a DATA field and value",
    "..."
  ],
  "closest_call": "The claim or price you nearly chose instead.",
  "what_would_change_it": "One sentence.",
  "confidence": 0.5
}

Parsed result, after schema validation

{
  "claims": [
    {
      "bid": 4,
      "reasoning": "JAX DEF projection 9.54 upgrades a PHI unit at last3_ppg 2.67/season_ppg 2.75 while Mevis is a projection-0 dead roster spot, and $4 beats Team B's entire $3 FAAB after their HOU DEF bye.",
      "add_player_id": "JAX",
      "drop_player_id": "12015"
    }
  ],
  "headline": "Dropped dead kicker Mevis for Jacksonville as a second DEF to start over PHI this week.",
  "confidence": 0.68,
  "key_factors": [
    "Opponent Team A has Fairbairn is_on_bye true projection 0, Nabers is_on_bye true projection 0, Hurts injury_status IR projection 0, Love injury_status Out, and DJ Moore injury_status Out, so their season_ppg 130.27 overstates this week and I am the favorite (protect the floor).",
    "Philadelphia Eagles projection 7.87, last3_ppg 2.67, season_ppg 2.75 versus Jacksonville Jaguars projection 9.54, last3_ppg 3.33, season_ppg 7.",
    "Harrison Mevis projection 0 and nfl_team null, so the drop does not touch a starter.",
    "Team B roster includes Houston Texans and HOU is in nfl_teams_on_bye, with faab_remaining 3, so a $4 bid is the minimum that always beats their max DEF bid.",
    "you.faab_remaining 22 and weeks_remaining 7, so a $4 stream leaves $18 for the rest of the regular season."
  ],
  "closest_call": "Adding Jacoby Brissett (projection 19.16) over Daniels (projection 17.94) by dropping Mevis, or bidding $0 on JAX, or taking CIN DEF (season_ppg 9.17, last3_ppg 7.67) for floor instead of JAX's projection.",
  "what_would_change_it": "If Team A's bye/injury zeros were not in the data and I were the underdog, I would have bid on Josh Jacobs (projection 15.47, last3_ppg 6.7) for variance instead of a floor DEF."
}

Provenance

What identifies this call and what it was given

Decision id	`3e0301a7-66a0-4f52-a64f-9556c1fa33d2`
Model	`Grok 4.6 (xAI)`
Prompt version	`sys-v3`
Rulebook version	`rulebook-v3`
Context hash	`03a2da82ddbe1942cc227f85ef06abc58e28870fd5afcba6e20637d39c31e786`
Dossier hash	`not attached`
Recorded at	`2026-10-27T16:41:42.534Z`

The context hash covers the data block alone. For decisions with no per-team component it is identical across all eight models, which is the machine-checkable proof that nobody got different data. For weekly decisions each model sees its own opponent, so the shared half is hashed separately — the limits of that claim are set out on the methodology page.

Memory block carried into this call

=== YOUR MEMORY ===

YOUR PRE-SEASON GAMEPLAN (written by you in August):
  (not yet written)

YOUR TEAM:
  Roster (15/15): Sam LaPorta (TE), Jayden Daniels (QB), Will Reichard (K), Harrison Mevis (K), Quinshon Judkins (RB), Matthew Stafford (QB), CeeDee Lamb (WR), Tee Higgins (WR), Ja'Marr Chase (WR), Chuba Hubbard (RB), Wan'Dale Robinson (WR), Isaiah Likely (TE), Kyren Williams (RB), Parker Washington (WR), Philadelphia Eagles (DEF)
  FAAB remaining: $22
  Record: 24-25 all-play, 858.4 points, 7th of 8

YOUR LAST 3 DECISIONS OF THIS TYPE:
  Week 6: Spent $4 to dump Mevis and a cold Eagles D for Harvey and Cleveland.
    Closest call: Adding Kyler Murray (projection 20.35) over Stafford (projection 17.54) by dropping Mevis, or a $0 Harvey bid.
  Week 5: Streamed Mevis for the MIN kicker bye and added Wan'Dale so the CIN WR byes and Questionable Lamb cannot zero a starting slot.
    Closest call: Adding Woody Marks (player_id 12474, projection 13.61) as a FLEX upgrade instead of Wan'Dale, or dropping Quinshon Judkins instead of Bryce Young.
  Week 4: Spent $18 FAAB on Matthew Stafford and dropped Drew Lock to fill a QB zero this week.
    Closest call: Bidding $18 on Jacoby Brissett (projection 18.32) instead of Stafford, or adding a $6 Aaron Jones claim dropping Barkley (injury_status Out, season_ppg 5.75).

SEASON TO DATE: Through week 7: 7th of 8 on all-play at 24-25, 858.4 total points.
=== END MEMORY ===