DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813
auction
This is the complete record of one model call: everything sent, everything returned, and every check run against it. Nothing is summarised or edited.
Outcome
VALID
Parsed cleanly against the schema on this attempt.
Tokens
48382 → 11232
8089 of the output was reasoning
Cost
$0.1083
105.1s latency
Temperature
0.2
Requested identically for all eight models
What it said
Structured reasoning, exactly as returned
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813auctionstated confidence 0.70
I bid $25 to secure a top-two slot because the early-round value over replacement is steepest at the top of the draft.
Key factors
- Slot 1's first pick (pick 1) can select Jahmyr Gibbs, proj_season_points 331.4, RB replacement_points 202.6, VOR 128.8.
- Slot 2's first six picks sum to 292.6 VOR using scarcity_curves replacement values, highest among all slots.
- Slot 4's first six picks sum to only 88.1 VOR, driven by five WRs with low value over replacement, making it the least attractive slot.
- Budget_rule: remaining budget is entire FAAB; bidding 25 leaves 75 for 14 weeks of waivers and the playoff auction.
Closest call. I considered bidding $30 to more aggressively secure slot 1 or 2, but $25 leaves $75 FAAB, which is a better balance between draft capital and in-season flexibility.
What would have changed it. If the VOR gap between the top and bottom slots were smaller, I would bid less to preserve FAAB.
Automated checks
Deterministic string and number matching — never a model call
Fields cited
12345678budget_ruleproj_season_pointsreplacement_pointsscarcity_curvesseason
Data fields and rulebook values the stated reasoning can be tied back to.
Claims not tied to the data
- Slot 2's first six picks sum to 292.6 VOR using scarcity_curves replacement values, highest among all slots. — value(s) not in DATA: 292.6
- Slot 4's first six picks sum to only 88.1 VOR, driven by five WRs with low value over replacement, making it the least attractive slot. — value(s) not in DATA: 88.1
Advisory only. This checker was wrong about most of what it flagged the first time it ran against real output — see methodology. Read these as prompts to go and look, not as verdicts.
Formatting notes
- key_factors[2]: 25 words (max 20)
Cosmetic deviations from the bounded schema. Deliberately kept separate from the column above, and they never trigger a fallback — reporting a model as having failed over formatting would misstate what happened.
Everything sent and returned
Unedited · the response is stored before any parsing or repair
Raw response, exactly as the model emitted it
{
"bid": 25,
"slot_preference": [1, 2, 8, 6, 5, 3, 7, 4],
"headline": "I bid $25 to secure a top-two slot because the early-round value over replacement is steepest at the top of the draft.",
"key_factors": [
"Slot 1's first pick (pick 1) can select Jahmyr Gibbs, proj_season_points 331.4, RB replacement_points 202.6, VOR 128.8.",
"Slot 2's first six picks sum to 292.6 VOR using scarcity_curves replacement values, highest among all slots.",
"Slot 4's first six picks sum to only 88.1 VOR, driven by five WRs with low value over replacement, making it the least attractive slot.",
"Budget_rule: remaining budget is entire FAAB; bidding 25 leaves 75 for 14 weeks of waivers and the playoff auction."
],
"closest_call": "I considered bidding $30 to more aggressively secure slot 1 or 2, but $25 leaves $75 FAAB, which is a better balance between draft capital and in-season flexibility.",
"what_would_change_it": "If the VOR gap between the top and bottom slots were smaller, I would bid less to preserve FAAB.",
"confidence": 0.7
}System prompt (sys-v3)
You are a fantasy football manager running one team for a full season. You commit to choices and back them with the data provided. DATA RULE (highest priority): Reason only from the RULEBOOK and the DATA block in this message. Do not use your own memory of player performance, injuries, depth charts, teams, or schedules. Your training data is out of date for this NFL season. If the DATA block conflicts with what you remember, the DATA block is correct. If a field is null, treat it as unknown. RULES: 1. Score every option against the RULEBOOK scoring table, not against a generic notion of fantasy value. 2. Optimize for the OBJECTIVE stated in the RULEBOOK. Nothing else. 3. Weigh projection, recent form, matchup, and injury status. 4. Commit to a specific choice. No ranges, no hedging. 5. Ground every claim in a specific DATA or RULEBOOK field. Cite the field and its value. Do not assert anything the data does not support. 6. Name the decision you were least sure about and say what would have changed your mind. OUTPUT RULE: Return only a single JSON object matching the schema. No preamble, no markdown, no code fences.
User prompt — rulebook, memory and data block (132,365 characters)
=== LEAGUE RULEBOOK rulebook-v3 ===
OBJECTIVE (this is what you are optimizing):
WIN THE LEAGUE. That is three things, in order:
1. Win your weekly head-to-head matchup. Each week you are paired against
exactly one other team. Whoever scores more points wins. A tie is a tie.
2. Finish in the top 4 of 8 after week 14 to reach the playoffs.
Seeding is head-to-head record; ties break on cumulative total points.
3. Win the 2-week playoff bracket.
Nothing else ranks you. An ALL-PLAY record (your score compared against all
7 other teams each week) is also computed and published, but it does NOT
determine standings, seeding, or the title.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR HOW YOU PLAY:
Because you face ONE opponent each week, the right decision depends on WHO
that opponent is and what they are likely to score.
- Beating a projected total by 40 points is worth exactly as much as
beating it by 1. Running up the score buys you nothing.
- If you are a heavy underdog, a safe lineup loses. Higher-variance
players give you a real chance at the outlier week you need.
- If you are a heavy favorite, the opposite holds. Protect the floor.
- A week you are very likely to lose is a week worth spending nothing on.
Budget you keep is budget you can use on a week you can win.
- Late in the season, what matters is not points but qualifying. Know
where you stand and what you need.
These are your judgments to make. We do not tell you your win probability;
you are given your opponent's roster and scoring history and are expected
to form your own view.
TEAMS: 8. You are one of them, and you are told which one.
Other teams appear under stable anonymous labels (for example "Team C")
which do not change all season. You are shown their rosters and their
completed results. You are NOT shown their lineup for the current week
before it locks, their reasoning, or which AI model any of them is.
SEASON: NFL weeks 1-14, then playoffs in weeks 15-16.
Every team plays every other team exactly twice over the 14 weeks.
PLAYOFFS:
The top 4 seeds advance. Week 15: seed 1 plays seed 4, seed 2 plays seed 3.
Week 16: the winners meet for the title and the two losers
play for third. Week 17 is not played.
A playoff game cannot end in a tie: if the scores are exactly level, the
HIGHER SEED advances. In the regular season a tie is a tie; here it is not.
When the regular season ends, EVERY player on the 4 eliminated teams is
released into a free-agent pool, and the 4 surviving teams bid their
remaining budget on them in one final waiver run. Budget you did not
spend during the season is what buys you a playoff roster.
ROSTER (15 players):
Starters (9): 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF
FLEX may be RB, WR, TE.
Bench: 6. Bench players score nothing.
There are no IR slots. An unfilled starting slot scores 0.
SCORING (per player, per week):
Passing yards ........... 0.04 each (1 per 25)
Passing TD .............. 4
Interception thrown ..... -1
Rushing yards ........... 0.1 each (1 per 10)
Rushing TD .............. 6
Reception ............... 1.0 (FULL PPR)
Receiving yards ......... 0.1 each (1 per 10)
Receiving TD ............ 6
Fumble lost ............. -2
2-point conversion ...... 2
Kicker: FG 0-39 = 3, FG 40-49 = 4, FG 50+ = 5, extra point = 1
DEF/ST: sack 1, interception 2, fumble recovery 2, safety 2,
blocked kick 2, defensive TD 6, special-teams TD 6
DEF/ST points allowed: 0 = 10, 1-6 = 7, 7-13 = 4, 14-20 = 1,
21-27 = 0, 28-34 = -1, 35+ = -4
A kick-return or punt-return touchdown is credited to the DEF/ST unit that
scored it, NOT to the individual returner. One return TD is worth exactly
6 points in this league.
BUDGET (one budget, two uses):
You start with $100. It never replenishes and must last the whole season.
1. Before the draft you bid from it for your draft slot.
2. Whatever remains is your FAAB budget for weekly waiver claims.
Spending on draft position directly reduces your ability to add players
later. That tradeoff is yours to price.
DRAFT: 15-round snake, 8 teams, one player per round.
From round 13, if you still have no player at a required starting position
(RB/WR/TE/QB/K/DEF), your available pool is narrowed to only the positions
you still need, and you will be told this has happened.
WAIVERS (weekly):
Sealed bids. Highest bid wins a player; ties break on waiver priority
(seeded in reverse draft-slot order; a successful claim drops you to the
bottom). Your roster is always exactly 15, so every add requires a drop.
A $0 bid is legal. Bidding nothing at all is legal.
NOT AVAILABLE THIS SEASON: trades, IR slots, open free agency between
waiver runs, and roster moves at any time other than the weekly waiver
window.
=== END RULEBOOK ===
=== DATA ===
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=== END DATA ===
Bid for your draft slot and rank all 8 slots in preference order. Your bid is deducted from the single budget that also funds every waiver claim you will make this season.
Return exactly this JSON shape and nothing else:
{
"bid": 30,
"slot_preference": [
4,
3,
5,
2,
6,
1,
7,
8
],
"headline": "One sentence.",
"key_factors": [
"cites a DATA field and value",
"..."
],
"closest_call": "The bid level nearly chosen instead, and what it would have cost later.",
"what_would_change_it": "One sentence.",
"confidence": 0.5
}Parsed result, after schema validation
{
"bid": 25,
"headline": "I bid $25 to secure a top-two slot because the early-round value over replacement is steepest at the top of the draft.",
"confidence": 0.7,
"key_factors": [
"Slot 1's first pick (pick 1) can select Jahmyr Gibbs, proj_season_points 331.4, RB replacement_points 202.6, VOR 128.8.",
"Slot 2's first six picks sum to 292.6 VOR using scarcity_curves replacement values, highest among all slots.",
"Slot 4's first six picks sum to only 88.1 VOR, driven by five WRs with low value over replacement, making it the least attractive slot.",
"Budget_rule: remaining budget is entire FAAB; bidding 25 leaves 75 for 14 weeks of waivers and the playoff auction."
],
"closest_call": "I considered bidding $30 to more aggressively secure slot 1 or 2, but $25 leaves $75 FAAB, which is a better balance between draft capital and in-season flexibility.",
"slot_preference": [
1,
2,
8,
6,
5,
3,
7,
4
],
"what_would_change_it": "If the VOR gap between the top and bottom slots were smaller, I would bid less to preserve FAAB."
}Provenance
What identifies this call and what it was given
| Decision id | ba71a7a6-2c73-4436-973f-dbf00baea5cc |
| Model | DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 (DeepSeek) |
| Prompt version | sys-v3 |
| Rulebook version | rulebook-v3 |
| Context hash | f5bdfd3e9a15708238574027dd92366fb080010c9df3a51d67f745e793d8ea5e |
| Dossier hash | c3a5e9db23d8a682b54b90a680d9ae2e5b640231e2b6c048c1c84906c49a383c |
| Recorded at | 2026-08-24T15:36:52.529Z |
The context hash covers the data block alone. For decisions with no per-team component it is identical across all eight models, which is the machine-checkable proof that nobody got different data. For weekly decisions each model sees its own opponent, so the shared half is hashed separately — the limits of that claim are set out on the methodology page.