Claude Opus 5
lineup · week 7
This is the complete record of one model call: everything sent, everything returned, and every check run against it. Nothing is summarised or edited.
What it said
Structured reasoning, exactly as returned
Jordan Love starts with Trevor Lawrence on bye, and Jalen Coker takes the FLEX over Jaylen Waddle behind a Bijan/Flowers/Collins/Bowers core projected near 146.
Key factors
- Trevor Lawrence is_on_bye true (JAX listed in nfl_teams_on_bye) and projection 0, so Jordan Love (projection 19.44, last3_ppg 19.61) is the only startable QB despite injury_status Questionable with body_part Back and no practice_note.
- Starting nine projections sum to 145.97 (Love 19.44, Bijan 22.64, Chase Brown 15.05, Flowers 18.81, Collins 18.16, Bowers 16.03, Coker 15.65, Shrader 9.58, HOU 10.61) against Team A's best available nine at roughly 131.6 (Nix 19.38, Gibbs 25.23, Henry 17.16, McMillan 14.08, Nabers 13.94, Loveland 9.69, Tate 12.43, Fairbairn 10.33, MIN 9.37).
- Team A season_ppg 130.91 with score_volatility 21.73 and weekly_scores ranging 100.56 to 157.76 — a mid-140s projection is a modest edge, not a safe one.
- Team A is missing three contributors: Jalen Hurts injury_status IR, DJ Moore injury_status Out and is_on_bye true, Brenton Strange is_on_bye true, and Jeremiyah Love projection 0 with Questionable Ankle — their depth is thinned at TE and WR3.
- Jalen Coker gets FLEX on projection 15.65 and last3_ppg 17.40 with injury_status null, over Jaylen Waddle (projection 12.88, last3_ppg 8.57, injury_status Questionable, body_part Chest).
- Kyle Monangai injury_status Out with Toe Sprain and projection 0 removes him from consideration; Cam Skattebo projection 5.01 and TreVeyon Henderson 6.92 are far behind Chase Brown's 15.05 at RB2.
- Houston Texans DEF projection 10.61 is the only DEF on the roster, so it starts regardless of season_ppg 4.75.
Closest call. Brock Bowers at TE — injury_status Questionable with body_part Hamstring and practice null; if the feed had reported limited or no participation I would have moved Juwan Johnson (projection 10.36, last3_ppg 15.27) to TE and started Waddle in FLEX alongside Coker.
What would have changed it. A practice_note showing Bowers or Love sat out, which would push Juwan Johnson into the lineup and leave me with no QB-caliber replacement, dropping my projection roughly 25 points and my confidence below 0.40.
Automated checks
Deterministic string and number matching — never a model call
Fields cited
RULEBOOKbody_partinjury_statusis_on_byelast3_ppgnfl_teamnfl_teams_on_byepracticepractice_noteprojectionrosterscore_volatilityseason_ppgtableweekweekly_scores
Data fields and rulebook values the stated reasoning can be tied back to.
Claims not tied to the data
- Starting nine projections sum to 145.97 (Love 19.44, Bijan 22.64, Chase Brown 15.05, Flowers 18.81, Collins 18.16, Bowers 16.03, Coker 15.65, Shrader 9.58, HOU 10.61) against Team A's best available nine at roughly 131.6 (Nix 19.38, Gibbs 25.23, Henry 17.16, McMillan 14.08, Nabers 13.94, Loveland 9.69, Tate 12.43, Fairbairn 10.33, MIN 9.37). — value(s) not in DATA: 145.97, 131.6
- Team A season_ppg 130.91 with score_volatility 21.73 and weekly_scores ranging 100.56 to 157.76 — a mid-140s projection is a modest edge, not a safe one. — value(s) not in DATA: -140
Advisory only. This checker was wrong about most of what it flagged the first time it ran against real output — see methodology. Read these as prompts to go and look, not as verdicts.
Formatting notes
- key_factors: 7 (max 4)
- key_factors[0]: 32 words (max 20)
- key_factors[1]: 52 words (max 20)
- key_factors[2]: 25 words (max 20)
- key_factors[3]: 38 words (max 20)
- key_factors[4]: 24 words (max 20)
- key_factors[5]: 30 words (max 20)
Cosmetic deviations from the bounded schema. Deliberately kept separate from the column above, and they never trigger a fallback — reporting a model as having failed over formatting would misstate what happened.
Everything sent and returned
Unedited · the response is stored before any parsing or repair
Raw response, exactly as the model emitted it
{
"qb": "6804",
"rb": [
"9509",
"9224"
],
"wr": [
"9997",
"7569"
],
"te": "11604",
"flex": "11646",
"k": "12185",
"def": "HOU",
"headline": "Jordan Love starts with Trevor Lawrence on bye, and Jalen Coker takes the FLEX over Jaylen Waddle behind a Bijan/Flowers/Collins/Bowers core projected near 146.",
"key_factors": [
"Trevor Lawrence is_on_bye true (JAX listed in nfl_teams_on_bye) and projection 0, so Jordan Love (projection 19.44, last3_ppg 19.61) is the only startable QB despite injury_status Questionable with body_part Back and no practice_note.",
"Starting nine projections sum to 145.97 (Love 19.44, Bijan 22.64, Chase Brown 15.05, Flowers 18.81, Collins 18.16, Bowers 16.03, Coker 15.65, Shrader 9.58, HOU 10.61) against Team A's best available nine at roughly 131.6 (Nix 19.38, Gibbs 25.23, Henry 17.16, McMillan 14.08, Nabers 13.94, Loveland 9.69, Tate 12.43, Fairbairn 10.33, MIN 9.37).",
"Team A season_ppg 130.91 with score_volatility 21.73 and weekly_scores ranging 100.56 to 157.76 — a mid-140s projection is a modest edge, not a safe one.",
"Team A is missing three contributors: Jalen Hurts injury_status IR, DJ Moore injury_status Out and is_on_bye true, Brenton Strange is_on_bye true, and Jeremiyah Love projection 0 with Questionable Ankle — their depth is thinned at TE and WR3.",
"Jalen Coker gets FLEX on projection 15.65 and last3_ppg 17.40 with injury_status null, over Jaylen Waddle (projection 12.88, last3_ppg 8.57, injury_status Questionable, body_part Chest).",
"Kyle Monangai injury_status Out with Toe Sprain and projection 0 removes him from consideration; Cam Skattebo projection 5.01 and TreVeyon Henderson 6.92 are far behind Chase Brown's 15.05 at RB2.",
"Houston Texans DEF projection 10.61 is the only DEF on the roster, so it starts regardless of season_ppg 4.75."
],
"closest_call": "Brock Bowers at TE — injury_status Questionable with body_part Hamstring and practice null; if the feed had reported limited or no participation I would have moved Juwan Johnson (projection 10.36, last3_ppg 15.27) to TE and started Waddle in FLEX alongside Coker.",
"what_would_change_it": "A practice_note showing Bowers or Love sat out, which would push Juwan Johnson into the lineup and leave me with no QB-caliber replacement, dropping my projection roughly 25 points and my confidence below 0.40.",
"confidence": 0.55
}System prompt (sys-v3)
You are a fantasy football manager running one team for a full season. You commit to choices and back them with the data provided. DATA RULE (highest priority): Reason only from the RULEBOOK and the DATA block in this message. Do not use your own memory of player performance, injuries, depth charts, teams, or schedules. Your training data is out of date for this NFL season. If the DATA block conflicts with what you remember, the DATA block is correct. If a field is null, treat it as unknown. RULES: 1. Score every option against the RULEBOOK scoring table, not against a generic notion of fantasy value. 2. Optimize for the OBJECTIVE stated in the RULEBOOK. Nothing else. 3. Weigh projection, recent form, matchup, and injury status. 4. Commit to a specific choice. No ranges, no hedging. 5. Ground every claim in a specific DATA or RULEBOOK field. Cite the field and its value. Do not assert anything the data does not support. 6. Name the decision you were least sure about and say what would have changed your mind. OUTPUT RULE: Return only a single JSON object matching the schema. No preamble, no markdown, no code fences.
User prompt — rulebook, memory and data block (17,945 characters)
=== LEAGUE RULEBOOK rulebook-v3 ===
OBJECTIVE (this is what you are optimizing):
WIN THE LEAGUE. That is three things, in order:
1. Win your weekly head-to-head matchup. Each week you are paired against
exactly one other team. Whoever scores more points wins. A tie is a tie.
2. Finish in the top 4 of 8 after week 14 to reach the playoffs.
Seeding is head-to-head record; ties break on cumulative total points.
3. Win the 2-week playoff bracket.
Nothing else ranks you. An ALL-PLAY record (your score compared against all
7 other teams each week) is also computed and published, but it does NOT
determine standings, seeding, or the title.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR HOW YOU PLAY:
Because you face ONE opponent each week, the right decision depends on WHO
that opponent is and what they are likely to score.
- Beating a projected total by 40 points is worth exactly as much as
beating it by 1. Running up the score buys you nothing.
- If you are a heavy underdog, a safe lineup loses. Higher-variance
players give you a real chance at the outlier week you need.
- If you are a heavy favorite, the opposite holds. Protect the floor.
- A week you are very likely to lose is a week worth spending nothing on.
Budget you keep is budget you can use on a week you can win.
- Late in the season, what matters is not points but qualifying. Know
where you stand and what you need.
These are your judgments to make. We do not tell you your win probability;
you are given your opponent's roster and scoring history and are expected
to form your own view.
TEAMS: 8. You are one of them, and you are told which one.
Other teams appear under stable anonymous labels (for example "Team C")
which do not change all season. You are shown their rosters and their
completed results. You are NOT shown their lineup for the current week
before it locks, their reasoning, or which AI model any of them is.
SEASON: NFL weeks 1-14, then playoffs in weeks 15-16.
Every team plays every other team exactly twice over the 14 weeks.
PLAYOFFS:
The top 4 seeds advance. Week 15: seed 1 plays seed 4, seed 2 plays seed 3.
Week 16: the winners meet for the title and the two losers
play for third. Week 17 is not played.
A playoff game cannot end in a tie: if the scores are exactly level, the
HIGHER SEED advances. In the regular season a tie is a tie; here it is not.
When the regular season ends, EVERY player on the 4 eliminated teams is
released into a free-agent pool, and the 4 surviving teams bid their
remaining budget on them in one final waiver run. Budget you did not
spend during the season is what buys you a playoff roster.
ROSTER (15 players):
Starters (9): 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF
FLEX may be RB, WR, TE.
Bench: 6. Bench players score nothing.
There are no IR slots. An unfilled starting slot scores 0.
SCORING (per player, per week):
Passing yards ........... 0.04 each (1 per 25)
Passing TD .............. 4
Interception thrown ..... -1
Rushing yards ........... 0.1 each (1 per 10)
Rushing TD .............. 6
Reception ............... 1.0 (FULL PPR)
Receiving yards ......... 0.1 each (1 per 10)
Receiving TD ............ 6
Fumble lost ............. -2
2-point conversion ...... 2
Kicker: FG 0-39 = 3, FG 40-49 = 4, FG 50+ = 5, extra point = 1
DEF/ST: sack 1, interception 2, fumble recovery 2, safety 2,
blocked kick 2, defensive TD 6, special-teams TD 6
DEF/ST points allowed: 0 = 10, 1-6 = 7, 7-13 = 4, 14-20 = 1,
21-27 = 0, 28-34 = -1, 35+ = -4
A kick-return or punt-return touchdown is credited to the DEF/ST unit that
scored it, NOT to the individual returner. One return TD is worth exactly
6 points in this league.
BUDGET (one budget, two uses):
You start with $100. It never replenishes and must last the whole season.
1. Before the draft you bid from it for your draft slot.
2. Whatever remains is your FAAB budget for weekly waiver claims.
Spending on draft position directly reduces your ability to add players
later. That tradeoff is yours to price.
DRAFT: 15-round snake, 8 teams, one player per round.
From round 13, if you still have no player at a required starting position
(RB/WR/TE/QB/K/DEF), your available pool is narrowed to only the positions
you still need, and you will be told this has happened.
WAIVERS (weekly):
Sealed bids. Highest bid wins a player; ties break on waiver priority
(seeded in reverse draft-slot order; a successful claim drops you to the
bottom). Your roster is always exactly 15, so every add requires a drop.
A $0 bid is legal. Bidding nothing at all is legal.
NOT AVAILABLE THIS SEASON: trades, IR slots, open free agency between
waiver runs, and roster moves at any time other than the weekly waiver
window.
=== END RULEBOOK ===
=== YOUR MEMORY ===
YOUR PRE-SEASON GAMEPLAN (written by you in August):
(not yet written)
YOUR TEAM:
Roster (15/15): Brock Bowers (TE), Jalen Coker (WR), Spencer Shrader (K), Cam Skattebo (RB), TreVeyon Henderson (RB), Kyle Monangai (RB), Jordan Love (QB), Juwan Johnson (TE), Trevor Lawrence (QB), Jaylen Waddle (WR), Nico Collins (WR), Chase Brown (RB), Bijan Robinson (RB), Zay Flowers (WR), Houston Texans (DEF)
FAAB remaining: $3
Record: 13-29 all-play, 679.34 points, 5th of 8
YOUR LAST 3 DECISIONS OF THIS TYPE:
Week 6: Jordan Love gets the QB nod over Trevor Lawrence and healthy Jalen Coker takes the FLEX, behind a Bijan-led core projected around 145.
Closest call: Brock Bowers at TE — his injury_status is Questionable with a Knee body_part and no practice_note, so if the feed had reported limited or no participation I would have slid Juwan Johnson (projection 10.99, last3_ppg 15.27) into TE and started Waddle in FLEX alongside Coker.
Week 5: Trevor Lawrence at QB with Bijan/Chase Brown at RB, Collins and Flowers at WR, Bowers at TE, and the healthy Jaylen Waddle in FLEX over Questionable Cam Skattebo.
Closest call: Jaylen Waddle (projection 12.17) in the FLEX over Cam Skattebo (projection 12.73) — if Skattebo's injury_detail had shown a practice_note indicating full participation, or if his injury_status had been null, the higher projection would have taken the slot.
Week 4: Trevor Lawrence at QB and I start both Questionable high-ceiling receivers (Nico Collins, Zay Flowers) while taking the healthy Cam Skattebo in FLEX over a third Questionable body in Jalen Coker.
Closest call: Cam Skattebo (projection 15.40) in the FLEX over Jalen Coker (projection 14.91, last3_ppg 17.40) — if Coker's injury_detail had shown a practice_note indicating full participation, or if his injury_status had been null, his 17.40 last3_ppg would have won the slot outright.
SEASON TO DATE: Through week 6: 5th of 8 on all-play at 13-29, 679.3 total points.
=== END MEMORY ===
=== DATA ===
{"league":{"field_notes":{"injury_detail":"injury_detail is copied verbatim from the league's player feed: body_part, notes, since (the date the feed says the injury began) and practice / practice_note (participation, when reported). injury_status alone does not distinguish a minor injury from a serious one; injury_detail is the only severity information in this block, and it is not graded — judging what it implies is your call. The DATA RULE forbids recalling what happened to a specific player from memory; it does not forbid general knowledge of what an injury type usually means. The feed rarely reports practice participation, so a null practice field means \"not reported\", never \"practised fully\". injury_detail is null when the feed has nothing beyond injury_status."},"matchups":[{"away":"Team B","home":"Team A"},{"away":"Team H","home":"Team D"},{"away":"Team C","home":"Team E"},{"away":"Team F","home":"Team G"}],"nfl_teams_on_bye":["BUF","JAX","LAC","WAS"],"phase":"regular_season","playoff_spots":4,"ranking_basis":"h2h","regular_season_weeks":14,"standings":[{"label":"Team G","points_for":798.16,"rank":1,"record":"4-2"},{"label":"Team A","points_for":785.48,"rank":2,"record":"4-2"},{"label":"Team F","points_for":698.76,"rank":3,"record":"4-2"},{"label":"Team D","points_for":754,"rank":4,"record":"3-3"},{"label":"Team B","points_for":679.34,"rank":5,"record":"3-3"},{"label":"Team E","points_for":752.66,"rank":6,"record":"2-4"},{"label":"Team C","points_for":731.6,"rank":7,"record":"2-4"},{"label":"Team H","points_for":710.66,"rank":8,"record":"2-4"}],"week":7,"weeks_remaining":8},"you":{"faab_remaining":3,"flex_eligible":["RB","WR","TE"],"lookahead":[{"label":"Team G","record":"4-2","season_ppg":133.03,"week":8},{"label":"Team H","record":"2-4","season_ppg":118.44,"week":9},{"label":"Team F","record":"4-2","season_ppg":116.46,"week":10}],"opponent":{"label":"Team A","record":"4-2","roster":[{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":15.54,"name":"Bo Nix","nfl_team":"DEN","player_id":"11563","position":"QB","projection":19.38,"season_ppg":13.64},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":19.97,"name":"Malik Nabers","nfl_team":"NYG","player_id":"11632","position":"WR","projection":13.94,"season_ppg":14.78},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":6.7,"name":"Colston Loveland","nfl_team":"CHI","player_id":"12517","position":"TE","projection":9.69,"season_ppg":5.03},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":21.33,"name":"Tetairoa McMillan","nfl_team":"CAR","player_id":"12526","position":"WR","projection":14.08,"season_ppg":18.63},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":11.63,"name":"Carnell Tate","nfl_team":"TEN","player_id":"13279","position":"WR","projection":12.43,"season_ppg":9.68},{"injury_detail":{"body_part":"Ankle","notes":null,"practice":null,"practice_note":null,"since":null},"injury_status":"Questionable","is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":10.2,"name":"Jeremiyah Love","nfl_team":"ARI","player_id":"13287","position":"RB","projection":0,"season_ppg":10.22},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":19.6,"name":"Derrick Henry","nfl_team":"BAL","player_id":"3198","position":"RB","projection":17.16,"season_ppg":22.36},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":9.33,"name":"Ka'imi Fairbairn","nfl_team":"HOU","player_id":"3451","position":"K","projection":10.33,"season_ppg":9.25},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":7.2,"name":"Chris Godwin Jr.","nfl_team":"TB","player_id":"4037","position":"WR","projection":9.65,"season_ppg":7.74},{"injury_detail":{"body_part":"Shoulder - AC Joint","notes":"Sprain","practice":null,"practice_note":null,"since":null},"injury_status":"Out","is_on_bye":true,"last3_ppg":5.1,"name":"DJ Moore","nfl_team":"BUF","player_id":"4983","position":"WR","projection":0,"season_ppg":9.07},{"injury_detail":{"body_part":"Calf","notes":null,"practice":null,"practice_note":null,"since":null},"injury_status":"IR","is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":13.38,"name":"Jalen Hurts","nfl_team":"PHI","player_id":"6904","position":"QB","projection":0,"season_ppg":16.6},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":32.27,"name":"Jahmyr Gibbs","nfl_team":"DET","player_id":"9221","position":"RB","projection":25.23,"season_ppg":30.74},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":true,"last3_ppg":8.8,"name":"Brenton Strange","nfl_team":"JAX","player_id":"9480","position":"TE","projection":0,"season_ppg":9.18},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":3.67,"name":"Kansas City Chiefs","nfl_team":"KC","player_id":"KC","position":"DEF","projection":7.97,"season_ppg":5.75},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":14,"name":"Minnesota Vikings","nfl_team":"MIN","player_id":"MIN","position":"DEF","projection":9.37,"season_ppg":12.5}],"score_volatility":21.73,"season_ppg":130.91,"weekly_scores":[147.02,100.56,138.32,157.76,139.32,102.5]},"playoff_round":null,"slots":{"DEF":1,"FLEX":1,"K":1,"QB":1,"RB":2,"TE":1,"WR":2},"standing":{"games_back_of_cutoff":0,"playoff_spots":4,"points_for":679.34,"table":[{"label":"Team G","points_for":798.16,"rank":1,"record":"4-2"},{"label":"Team A","points_for":785.48,"rank":2,"record":"4-2"},{"label":"Team F","points_for":698.76,"rank":3,"record":"4-2"},{"label":"Team D","points_for":754,"rank":4,"record":"3-3"},{"label":"Team B","points_for":679.34,"rank":5,"record":"3-3"},{"label":"Team E","points_for":752.66,"rank":6,"record":"2-4"},{"label":"Team C","points_for":731.6,"rank":7,"record":"2-4"},{"label":"Team H","points_for":710.66,"rank":8,"record":"2-4"}],"weeks_remaining":8,"your_label":"Team B","your_rank":5,"your_record":"3-3"},"startable_player_ids":["11604","11646","12185","12481","12529","6804","7002","7526","7569","9224","9509","9997","HOU"],"waiver_priority":5,"your_label":"Team B","your_record":"3-3","your_roster":[{"injury_detail":{"body_part":"Hamstring","notes":null,"practice":null,"practice_note":null,"since":null},"injury_status":"Questionable","is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":23.73,"name":"Brock Bowers","nfl_team":"LV","player_id":"11604","position":"TE","projection":16.03,"season_ppg":23.73},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":17.4,"name":"Jalen Coker","nfl_team":"CAR","player_id":"11646","position":"WR","projection":15.65,"season_ppg":17.4},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":15.67,"name":"Spencer Shrader","nfl_team":"IND","player_id":"12185","position":"K","projection":9.58,"season_ppg":13.5},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":9.23,"name":"Cam Skattebo","nfl_team":"NYG","player_id":"12481","position":"RB","projection":5.01,"season_ppg":10.26},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":4.3,"name":"TreVeyon Henderson","nfl_team":"NE","player_id":"12529","position":"RB","projection":6.92,"season_ppg":6.63},{"injury_detail":{"body_part":"Toe","notes":"Sprain","practice":null,"practice_note":null,"since":null},"injury_status":"Out","is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":12.97,"name":"Kyle Monangai","nfl_team":"CHI","player_id":"12534","position":"RB","projection":0,"season_ppg":14.83},{"injury_detail":{"body_part":"Back","notes":null,"practice":null,"practice_note":null,"since":null},"injury_status":"Questionable","is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":19.61,"name":"Jordan Love","nfl_team":"GB","player_id":"6804","position":"QB","projection":19.44,"season_ppg":18.62},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":15.27,"name":"Juwan Johnson","nfl_team":"NO","player_id":"7002","position":"TE","projection":10.36,"season_ppg":15.05},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":true,"last3_ppg":18.87,"name":"Trevor Lawrence","nfl_team":"JAX","player_id":"7523","position":"QB","projection":0,"season_ppg":17.97},{"injury_detail":{"body_part":"Chest","notes":null,"practice":null,"practice_note":null,"since":null},"injury_status":"Questionable","is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":8.57,"name":"Jaylen Waddle","nfl_team":"DEN","player_id":"7526","position":"WR","projection":12.88,"season_ppg":9.74},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":20.87,"name":"Nico Collins","nfl_team":"HOU","player_id":"7569","position":"WR","projection":18.16,"season_ppg":20.87},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":11.67,"name":"Chase Brown","nfl_team":"CIN","player_id":"9224","position":"RB","projection":15.05,"season_ppg":13},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":26.27,"name":"Bijan Robinson","nfl_team":"ATL","player_id":"9509","position":"RB","projection":22.64,"season_ppg":24.24},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":18.6,"name":"Zay Flowers","nfl_team":"BAL","player_id":"9997","position":"WR","projection":18.81,"season_ppg":20.45},{"injury_detail":null,"injury_status":null,"is_on_bye":false,"last3_ppg":7,"name":"Houston Texans","nfl_team":"HOU","player_id":"HOU","position":"DEF","projection":10.61,"season_ppg":4.75}]}}
=== END DATA ===
Set your starting lineup for this week. Name one player_id for every slot: qb, two rb, two wr, te, flex (RB/WR/TE), k, def. Every id must come from your_roster and must appear in startable_player_ids — a player on bye or ruled out cannot score. No player may fill two slots.
If you have NO startable player eligible for a slot, set it to null. That is a legal answer and it scores 0 for that slot, shown publicly as an empty slot. Do not invent an id and do not put an ineligible player there. But null is only accepted when nothing eligible is left — leaving a slot empty while a startable player sits on your bench is rejected, and the deterministic fallback lineup replaces your whole answer.
CONFIDENCE means one specific thing here: your probability that this lineup OUTSCORES your opponent this week. 0.5 is a coin flip, 0.8 means you expect to win four weeks out of five in this matchup, 0.2 means you expect to lose four out of five. It is not how sure you are that you picked the right players. We never tell you our own estimate — form your own from the opponent roster and scoring history you have been given. These numbers are scored against actual results and published.
Return exactly this JSON shape and nothing else:
{
"qb": "player_id",
"rb": [
"player_id",
"player_id"
],
"wr": [
"player_id",
"player_id"
],
"te": "player_id",
"flex": "player_id",
"k": "player_id",
"def": "player_id or null if nothing eligible remains",
"headline": "One sentence naming the call you actually made.",
"key_factors": [
"cites a DATA field and value",
"..."
],
"closest_call": "The starter you nearly benched, and what would have made you.",
"what_would_change_it": "One sentence.",
"confidence": 0.5
}Parsed result, after schema validation
{
"k": "12185",
"qb": "6804",
"rb": [
"9509",
"9224"
],
"te": "11604",
"wr": [
"9997",
"7569"
],
"def": "HOU",
"flex": "11646",
"headline": "Jordan Love starts with Trevor Lawrence on bye, and Jalen Coker takes the FLEX over Jaylen Waddle behind a Bijan/Flowers/Collins/Bowers core projected near 146.",
"confidence": 0.55,
"key_factors": [
"Trevor Lawrence is_on_bye true (JAX listed in nfl_teams_on_bye) and projection 0, so Jordan Love (projection 19.44, last3_ppg 19.61) is the only startable QB despite injury_status Questionable with body_part Back and no practice_note.",
"Starting nine projections sum to 145.97 (Love 19.44, Bijan 22.64, Chase Brown 15.05, Flowers 18.81, Collins 18.16, Bowers 16.03, Coker 15.65, Shrader 9.58, HOU 10.61) against Team A's best available nine at roughly 131.6 (Nix 19.38, Gibbs 25.23, Henry 17.16, McMillan 14.08, Nabers 13.94, Loveland 9.69, Tate 12.43, Fairbairn 10.33, MIN 9.37).",
"Team A season_ppg 130.91 with score_volatility 21.73 and weekly_scores ranging 100.56 to 157.76 — a mid-140s projection is a modest edge, not a safe one.",
"Team A is missing three contributors: Jalen Hurts injury_status IR, DJ Moore injury_status Out and is_on_bye true, Brenton Strange is_on_bye true, and Jeremiyah Love projection 0 with Questionable Ankle — their depth is thinned at TE and WR3.",
"Jalen Coker gets FLEX on projection 15.65 and last3_ppg 17.40 with injury_status null, over Jaylen Waddle (projection 12.88, last3_ppg 8.57, injury_status Questionable, body_part Chest).",
"Kyle Monangai injury_status Out with Toe Sprain and projection 0 removes him from consideration; Cam Skattebo projection 5.01 and TreVeyon Henderson 6.92 are far behind Chase Brown's 15.05 at RB2.",
"Houston Texans DEF projection 10.61 is the only DEF on the roster, so it starts regardless of season_ppg 4.75."
],
"closest_call": "Brock Bowers at TE — injury_status Questionable with body_part Hamstring and practice null; if the feed had reported limited or no participation I would have moved Juwan Johnson (projection 10.36, last3_ppg 15.27) to TE and started Waddle in FLEX alongside Coker.",
"what_would_change_it": "A practice_note showing Bowers or Love sat out, which would push Juwan Johnson into the lineup and leave me with no QB-caliber replacement, dropping my projection roughly 25 points and my confidence below 0.40."
}Provenance
What identifies this call and what it was given
| Decision id | e59cee43-10ec-43b5-ba09-74debf71d9de |
| Model | Claude Opus 5 (Anthropic) |
| Prompt version | sys-v3 |
| Rulebook version | rulebook-v3 |
| Context hash | edafdafb8a9d4845bd65b45e3866c648c2f034c93163e8f1f109b3826f17b93f |
| Dossier hash | not attached |
| Recorded at | 2026-10-22T16:21:56.448Z |
The context hash covers the data block alone. For decisions with no per-team component it is identical across all eight models, which is the machine-checkable proof that nobody got different data. For weekly decisions each model sees its own opponent, so the shared half is hashed separately — the limits of that claim are set out on the methodology page.
Memory block carried into this call
=== YOUR MEMORY ===
YOUR PRE-SEASON GAMEPLAN (written by you in August):
(not yet written)
YOUR TEAM:
Roster (15/15): Brock Bowers (TE), Jalen Coker (WR), Spencer Shrader (K), Cam Skattebo (RB), TreVeyon Henderson (RB), Kyle Monangai (RB), Jordan Love (QB), Juwan Johnson (TE), Trevor Lawrence (QB), Jaylen Waddle (WR), Nico Collins (WR), Chase Brown (RB), Bijan Robinson (RB), Zay Flowers (WR), Houston Texans (DEF)
FAAB remaining: $3
Record: 13-29 all-play, 679.34 points, 5th of 8
YOUR LAST 3 DECISIONS OF THIS TYPE:
Week 6: Jordan Love gets the QB nod over Trevor Lawrence and healthy Jalen Coker takes the FLEX, behind a Bijan-led core projected around 145.
Closest call: Brock Bowers at TE — his injury_status is Questionable with a Knee body_part and no practice_note, so if the feed had reported limited or no participation I would have slid Juwan Johnson (projection 10.99, last3_ppg 15.27) into TE and started Waddle in FLEX alongside Coker.
Week 5: Trevor Lawrence at QB with Bijan/Chase Brown at RB, Collins and Flowers at WR, Bowers at TE, and the healthy Jaylen Waddle in FLEX over Questionable Cam Skattebo.
Closest call: Jaylen Waddle (projection 12.17) in the FLEX over Cam Skattebo (projection 12.73) — if Skattebo's injury_detail had shown a practice_note indicating full participation, or if his injury_status had been null, the higher projection would have taken the slot.
Week 4: Trevor Lawrence at QB and I start both Questionable high-ceiling receivers (Nico Collins, Zay Flowers) while taking the healthy Cam Skattebo in FLEX over a third Questionable body in Jalen Coker.
Closest call: Cam Skattebo (projection 15.40) in the FLEX over Jalen Coker (projection 14.91, last3_ppg 17.40) — if Coker's injury_detail had shown a practice_note indicating full participation, or if his injury_status had been null, his 17.40 last3_ppg would have won the slot outright.
SEASON TO DATE: Through week 6: 5th of 8 on all-play at 13-29, 679.3 total points.
=== END MEMORY ===