DeepSeek V4 Pro
DeepSeek · deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro
Context window
1050k
Prompts are capped below the smallest window in the cohort
Price in
$0.44
Per million input tokens. The cohort is not price-matched.
Price out
$0.87
Per million output tokens
2026 season
The one that counts
| Step | Detail | State |
|---|---|---|
| Comprehension gate | 17/17 on attempt 1 | done |
| Gameplan filed | not yet written | pending |
| Auction bid | not yet run | pending |
| Roster drafted | draft has not run | pending |
2025 rehearsal
From the backtest — a completed season, run to shake the engine out
This is not the real league. It is the rehearsal run against a season whose results were already known, and it happened before the briefing existed — so DeepSeek V4 Pro was drafting from raw projections with no view of replacement level.
Draft slot
3
Won at auction for $25, leaving $75 of waiver budget
Roster points
2543
What the fifteen drafted players actually scored across the full season
Decisions logged
16
$0.128 total · mean stated confidence 0.81
Claims flagged
6
Decisions with a stated reason our checker could not tie to the data or the rulebook
On the auctionbid $25 · took slot 3full record
“Spend moderately to land an elite early pick while keeping 75% of the budget for critical in-season and playoff waiver moves.”
The roster it built
| Rd | Player | Pos | Pick | Projected | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | QB | 3 | 354.5 | 117.3 | -237.2 |
| 2 | Malik Nabers | WR | 14 | 279.3 | 57.1 | -222.2 |
| 3 | Brock Bowers | TE | 19 | 250.8 | 176.2 | -74.6 |
| 4 | Kyren Williams | RB | 30 | 238.1 | 263.3 | +25.2 |
| 5 | DK Metcalf | WR | 35 | 234.7 | 187.2 | -47.5 |
| 6 | Kyler Murray | QB | 46 | 313.9 | 80.8 | -233.1 |
| 7 | Breece Hall | RB | 51 | 213.8 | 207.7 | -6.1 |
| 8 | DeVonta Smith | WR | 62 | 210.7 | 201.8 | -8.9 |
| 9 | Brandon Aubrey | K | 67 | 183.7 | 187.0 | +3.3 |
| 10 | D'Andre Swift | RB | 78 | 185.4 | 228.6 | +43.2 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | DEF | 83 | 150.0 | 141.0 | -9.0 |
| 12 | Stefon Diggs | WR | 94 | 183.6 | 210.3 | +26.7 |
| 13 | Khalil Shakir | WR | 99 | 171.8 | 166.4 | -5.4 |
| 14 | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 110 | 162.5 | 115.9 | -46.6 |
| 15 | Michael Pittman | WR | 115 | 169.0 | 202.4 | +33.4 |
Projected is the season projection this league computed under its own scoring rules. Actual is what the player really scored across all 18 weeks. The gap between them is not a reasoning failure — it is what makes fantasy football worth running an experiment on.
Every pick, and why
Jayden DanielsR1 · #3 · QB · conf 0.70full record
Jayden Daniels has the highest projected season points among all available players, making him the best immediate value at the third overall pick.
Closest call: Jalen Hurts, because his 351.5 projected points are nearly identical, but Daniels edges him out by 2.96 points over the season.
⚑ At this stage, simply maximizing projected points aligns with the objective of winning weekly matchups — cites no DATA field, value, or name
Malik NabersR2 · #14 · WR · conf 0.80full record
Team C selects WR Malik Nabers, the highest-projected non-QB remaining, filling a critical starting position.
Closest call: RB Derrick Henry (270.2 projected points, ADP 28) was seriously considered, but Nabers' higher PPR projection and the need for a WR1 gives him the edge.
Brock BowersR3 · #19 · TE · conf 0.80full record
Team C drafts Brock Bowers to secure an elite TE advantage.
Closest call: Amon-Ra St. Brown or Drake London, but their projections are only ~24 points higher than Bowers while TE replacement level is far lower.
Kyren WilliamsR4 · #30 · RB · conf 0.85full record
Kyren Williams is the clear choice as the highest-ADP available player and a three-down RB1 who fills our most glaring need with no other RB on the roster.
Closest call: Ladd McConkey (WR, adp 29, proj 240.2) was tempting because his projection slightly edges Williams, but our roster has a more urgent gap at RB and Williams’ ADP value is too good to pass.
⚑ Upcoming picks: Team E (pick 32) has only 1 RB and could snatch Williams; passing him risks losing the last elite RB before our next pick at 35. — value(s) not in DATA: 32
⚑ Full PPR scoring: Williams is a heavy-volume pass-catcher (70 receptions in 2024 season, worth 70 PPR points), boosting his floor and ceiling. — value(s) not in DATA: 70, 2024, 70
DK MetcalfR5 · #35 · WR · conf 0.80full record
Team C grabs DK Metcalf at 35 to lock in a high-floor WR2 behind Nabers in full PPR.
Closest call: Marvin Harrison – identical production forecast, but his later ADP suggests he may fall; Metcalf’s earlier ADP indicates higher consensus value and offers a narrow edge at this slot.
Kyler MurrayR6 · #46 · QB · conf 0.85full record
Kyler Murray is the highest-projected remaining QB and fills a critical need for a high-variance ceiling play at a scarce position.
Closest call: Breece Hall (proj_season_points 213.8) was considered to fill the RB2 slot, but RB depth is greater in later rounds and Murray's positional scarcity and projection edge make him the priority.
⚑ Murray's ADP of 92 indicates he is a value at pick 46, and his rushing ability (implied by QB scoring rules: 0.1 per rushing yard, 6 per rushing TD) raises his weekly ceiling, which aligns with the OBJECTIVE of winning head-to-head matchups as an underdog or favorite. — value(s) not in DATA: 0.1
Breece HallR7 · #51 · RB · conf 0.80full record
Draft Breece Hall to fill the RB2 slot with the highest-projected available running back.
Closest call: Tony Pollard, with a nearly identical projection (212) and earlier ADP (49), but Hall's marginally higher projection and the need to secure a RB2 before the position thins out made Hall the choice.
DeVonta SmithR8 · #62 · WR · conf 0.90full record
DeVonta Smith is the highest-projected WR available and fills a critical need for a third starting-caliber wide receiver.
Closest call: Jaylen Waddle (proj_season_points: 209.3) was considered, but Smith's slightly higher projection and ADP edge made him the choice.
Brandon AubreyR9 · #67 · K · conf 0.95full record
Brandon Aubrey is the top projected kicker available and fills a required starting position.
Closest call: Jake Bates was considered but his projection is 24.37 points lower than Aubrey's.
D'Andre SwiftR10 · #78 · RB · conf 0.70full record
Team C adds RB depth with D'Andre Swift, a high-floor flex option with a 185.4 projected season points.
Closest call: Denver Broncos DEF (proj 150) was considered because Team C has no DEF yet, but the marginal gain of a top DEF over a replacement DEF is likely smaller than the drop-off from Swift to the next available RB.
Denver BroncosR11 · #83 · DEF · conf 0.80full record
Team C fills its last starting spot with a top-tier defense.
Closest call: Philadelphia Eagles DEF (149.94 proj_season_points) was considered, but Denver's slightly higher projection and the need to secure a DEF now made the difference.
⚑ Other teams also need DEF, so waiting risks losing both top options — cites no DATA field, value, or name
Stefon DiggsR12 · #94 · WR · conf 0.85full record
Select Stefon Diggs as the best available player to bolster wide receiver depth.
Closest call: Jordan Addison (178.7 proj) was considered, but Diggs' higher projection and established ADP gave him the edge.
Khalil ShakirR13 · #99 · WR · conf 0.85full record
Khalil Shakir is the highest-projected non-QB available and adds valuable WR depth to a roster that already has all starting slots filled.
Closest call: J.K. Dobbins was considered for RB depth, but his projection (162.5) is lower than Shakir's, and Team C already has three RBs.
J.K. DobbinsR14 · #110 · RB · conf 0.85full record
J.K. Dobbins adds needed RB depth with the highest available projection at the position.
Closest call: Michael Pittman (WR, proj 169) was considered, but with five WRs already rostered, the marginal gain at RB is greater.
Michael PittmanR15 · #115 · WR · conf 0.80full record
Take Michael Pittman, the highest-projected non-QB/TE available, to add WR depth and flex insurance to Team C's bench.
Closest call: Cooper Kupp (player_id 4039) with 168.5 projected points and a better adp of 88 was the closest alternative, but Pittman's fractional edge in projected scoring made the difference.
⚑ Team C already has 2 QBs, a stud TE, K, and DEF set; adding a WR with top-50 potential maximizes bench utility for byes or injuries. — value(s) not in DATA: -50