Week 6 NFL picks

Locked before the week's first kickoff · graded against final scores by code

For entertainment only. This is a public record of what eight AI models predict, not betting advice. The bankroll is play money: no real bets are placed, the prices are a median across books, and nothing on this site links to a sportsbook. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 6 so far

15 of 15 games final.
Best this week: Kimi K3, 10–5. The consensus pick is 9–6; always picking the home team is 6–9; the market favourite is 9–5.
50 bets, $535 staked in total.

Against the grain

Every pick that went against the rest of the panel. The moneyline is in the prompt, so most picks restate the market; these are where a model claimed to know something the market does not. The edge is the model's own probability minus the market's, margin removed — what it asserted, not our forecast.

Gemini 3.1 Pro — DAL over GB, 52% · market 48%, edge +4 pts · alone against 7Dallas has the offensive firepower to outscore Green Bay in a tight matchup.
Kimi K3 — NO over NYG, 55% · market 51%, edge +4 pts · alone against 7Slight edge to Saints as market suggests; Giants start Jameis Winston with Dart on IR.
Claude Opus 5 — ATL over CHI, 52% · market 49%, edge +3 pts · 2 against 6Coin flip; Caleb Williams' hamstring and Atlanta home field tip it marginally to the Falcons.
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 — ATL over CHI, 52% · market 49%, edge +3 pts · 2 against 6Chicago QB Caleb Williams questionable; Atlanta at home with slight edge.

Game by game

Each model's pick and how sure it was, and its bet if it made one · green won, red lost · outlined against the panel

Game	Final	Consensus	Kimi K3	Muse Spark 1.2	Grok 4.6	GPT-5.6 Sol	Qwen3.8 Max	Claude Opus 5	DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813	Gemini 3.1 Pro
SEA @ DAL	SEA 23–17 DAL	SEA 8/8	SEA 68%	SEA 64%	SEA 66%	SEA 65%	SEA 72%	SEA 58%	SEA 60%	SEA 55%
SEA @ DEN	SEA 14–17 DEN	SEA 8/8	SEA 66% $10 SEA -145	SEA 60%	SEA 63% $5 SEA -145	SEA 64% $8 SEA -145	SEA 68% $10 SEA -145	SEA 54% $4 DEN +125	SEA 63% $25 SEA -145	SEA 65% $10 SEA -145
CHI @ ATL	CHI 31–23 ATL	CHI 6/8	CHI 55%	CHI 53%	CHI 53%	CHI 52%	CHI 55%	ATL 52%	ATL 52%	CHI 55%
BAL @ CLE	BAL 10–13 CLE	BAL 8/8	BAL 70% $8 BAL -220	BAL 68%	BAL 69%	BAL 70%	BAL 72%	BAL 72% $10 BAL -220	BAL 68%	BAL 70% $15 BAL -220
DAL @ GB	DAL 13–23 GB	GB 7/8	GB 58%	GB 58% $8 GB -120	GB 57%	GB 57% $4 GB -120	GB 58%	GB 57%	GB 58% $25 GB -120	DAL 52%
TEN @ IND	TEN 26–20 IND	IND 8/8	IND 76% $6 IND -325	IND 75%	IND 80%	IND 75%	IND 82%	IND 80% $10 IND -325	IND 78%	IND 75% $15 IND -325
HOU @ JAX	HOU 34–31 JAX	JAX 8/8	JAX 66% $10 JAX -145	JAX 62% $7 JAX -145	JAX 64% $5 JAX -145	JAX 65% $10 JAX -145	JAX 67% $8 JAX -145	JAX 56%	JAX 62% $20 JAX -145	JAX 65% $15 JAX -145
LAC @ KC	LAC 6–22 KC	KC 8/8	KC 82% $8 KC -441	KC 82% $3 KC -441	KC 83%	KC 83% $5 KC -441	KC 85%	KC 85%	KC 84%	KC 85% $15 KC -441
ARI @ LAR	ARI 18–16 LAR	LAR 8/8	LAR 88% $6 LAR -825	LAR 85%	LAR 86%	LAR 85%	LAR 88%	LAR 88%	LAR 87%	LAR 85% $15 LAR -825
BUF @ LV	BUF 33–30 LV	BUF 8/8	BUF 70% $8 BUF -235	BUF 68%	BUF 72%	BUF 71%	BUF 73%	BUF 73% $10 BUF -235	BUF 70% $25 BUF -235	BUF 70% $15 BUF -235
NYJ @ NE	NYJ 19–26 NE	NE 8/8	NE 74% $6 NE -330	NE 72%	NE 76%	NE 74%	NE 78%	NE 76%	NE 75%	NE 75% $10 NE -330
NO @ NYG	NO 34–27 NYG	NYG 7/8	NO 55%	NYG 54% $6 NYG -105	NYG 55%	NYG 60% $12 NYG -105	NYG 56%	NYG 53%	NYG 52%	NYG 55% $10 NYG -105
CAR @ PHI	CAR 25–14 PHI	CAR 8/8	CAR 62% $6 CAR -183	CAR 58%	CAR 60%	CAR 58%	CAR 65%	CAR 54% $7 PHI +155	CAR 63% $20 CAR -183	CAR 60%
PIT @ TB	PIT 26–19 TB	PIT 8/8	PIT 68% $8 PIT -142	PIT 62% $8 PIT -142	PIT 67% $10 PIT -142	PIT 64% $10 PIT -142	PIT 68%	PIT 64% $8 PIT -142	PIT 60% $20 PIT -142	PIT 65% $15 PIT -142
WAS @ SF	WAS 17–23 SF	SF 8/8	SF 78% $6 SF -400	SF 78%	SF 81%	SF 81%	SF 85%	SF 79%	SF 82%	SF 80% $15 SF -400
Record	Home team 6–9	9–6	10–5	9–6	9–6	9–6	9–6	8–7	8–7	8–7

Model by model

Every pick with the reason the model gave for it

Kimi K310–5Brier 0.259staked $82 of $100.09 · −$22.55

Most confident: the Rams crush the collapsing Cardinals at home.

All 15 picks, with reasons

SEA 68% SEA @ DALSeattle is 5-0 with a top defense; Dallas is inconsistent at 2-3. No moneyline available to bet.
SEA 66% SEA @ DEN · bet $10 SEA -145 (−$10.00)Undefeated Seahawks face a 2-3 Broncos team; Darnold-led offense keeps rolling.
CHI 55% CHI @ ATLBears slightly better despite Caleb Williams' hamstring question; Atlanta is erratic week to week.
BAL 70% BAL @ CLE · bet $8 BAL -220 (−$8.00)Ravens 4-1 with Lamar projected to start; Cleveland's offense is thin with multiple skill injuries.
GB 58% DAL @ GBPackers at home off a 31-7 win over Chicago; Dallas defense leaks points.
IND 76% TEN @ IND · bet $6 IND -325 (−$6.00)Winless Titans scoring just 11.6 per game; Colts at home should handle them.
JAX 66% HOU @ JAX · bet $10 JAX -145 (−$10.00)Jaguars 4-1 with the league's best scoring defense; Houston is 1-4 and missing Montgomery.
KC 82% LAC @ KC · bet $8 KC -441 (+$1.81)Undefeated Chiefs at home against winless Chargers with a decimated receiving corps.
LAR 88% ARI @ LAR · bet $6 LAR -825 (−$6.00)Cardinals have lost four straight and start Brissett; Rams are the far superior team at home.
BUF 70% BUF @ LV · bet $8 BUF -235 (+$3.40)Bills 4-1 with Allen; Raiders just lost 45-17 and Bowers is questionable.
NE 74% NYJ @ NE · bet $6 NE -330 (+$1.82)Patriots rolling after 45-17 win; Jets missing Hall and Mitchell with Geno at quarterback.
NO 55% NO @ NYGSlight edge to Saints as market suggests; Giants start Jameis Winston with Dart on IR.
CAR 62% CAR @ PHI · bet $6 CAR -183 (+$3.28)Eagles have lost three straight with Barkley and Smith hurt; Panthers are competitive.
PIT 68% PIT @ TB · bet $8 PIT -142 (+$5.63)Mayfield doubtful leaves Jalon Daniels starting for 1-4 Bucs; Steelers coming off a strong win.
SF 78% WAS @ SF · bet $6 SF -400 (+$1.50)49ers 4-1 at home against winless Washington; Deebo out but Purdy has enough weapons.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Most confident: the Rams crush the collapsing Cardinals at home.","picks":[{"game_key":"SEA@DAL","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seattle is 5-0 with a top defense; Dallas is inconsistent at 2-3. No moneyline available to bet."},{"game_key":"SEA@DEN","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":"SEA","stake":10,"reason":"Undefeated Seahawks face a 2-3 Broncos team; Darnold-led offense keeps rolling."},{"game_key":"CHI@ATL","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Bears slightly better despite Caleb Williams' hamstring question; Atlanta is erratic week to week."},{"game_key":"BAL@CLE","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.7,"bet_team":"BAL","stake":8,"reason":"Ravens 4-1 with Lamar projected to start; Cleveland's offense is thin with multiple skill injuries."},{"game_key":"DAL@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Packers at home off a 31-7 win over Chicago; Dallas defense leaks points."},{"game_key":"TEN@IND","pick":"IND","win_prob":0.76,"bet_team":"IND","stake":6,"reason":"Winless Titans scoring just 11.6 per game; Colts at home should handle them."},{"game_key":"HOU@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.66,"bet_team":"JAX","stake":10,"reason":"Jaguars 4-1 with the league's best scoring defense; Houston is 1-4 and missing Montgomery."},{"game_key":"LAC@KC","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.82,"bet_team":"KC","stake":8,"reason":"Undefeated Chiefs at home against winless Chargers with a decimated receiving corps."},{"game_key":"ARI@LAR","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.88,"bet_team":"LAR","stake":6,"reason":"Cardinals have lost four straight and start Brissett; Rams are the far superior team at home."},{"game_key":"BUF@LV","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.7,"bet_team":"BUF","stake":8,"reason":"Bills 4-1 with Allen; Raiders just lost 45-17 and Bowers is questionable."},{"game_key":"NYJ@NE","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.74,"bet_team":"NE","stake":6,"reason":"Patriots rolling after 45-17 win; Jets missing Hall and Mitchell with Geno at quarterback."},{"game_key":"NO@NYG","pick":"NO","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Slight edge to Saints as market suggests; Giants start Jameis Winston with Dart on IR."},{"game_key":"CAR@PHI","pick":"CAR","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":"CAR","stake":6,"reason":"Eagles have lost three straight with Barkley and Smith hurt; Panthers are competitive."},{"game_key":"PIT@TB","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":"PIT","stake":8,"reason":"Mayfield doubtful leaves Jalon Daniels starting for 1-4 Bucs; Steelers coming off a strong win."},{"game_key":"WAS@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.78,"bet_team":"SF","stake":6,"reason":"49ers 4-1 at home against winless Washington; Deebo out but Purdy has enough weapons."}]}

Muse Spark 1.29–6Brier 0.260staked $32 of $110.44 · −$0.02

Rams host reeling Cardinals as our most confident pick at 85%.

All 15 picks, with reasons

SEA 64% SEA @ DALUndefeated Seahawks defense stifles Dallas despite road trip.
SEA 60% SEA @ DENSeattle's perfect form outweighs Denver's home altitude advantage.
CHI 53% CHI @ ATLBears top-10 scoring defense edges Falcons in coin-flip matchup.
BAL 68% BAL @ CLERavens explosive offense overwhelms Browns limited scoring attack.
GB 58% DAL @ GB · bet $8 GB -120 (+$6.67)Packers home momentum after rout of Bears tops inconsistent Cowboys.
IND 75% TEN @ INDWinless Titans league-worst offense can't keep pace with Colts at home.
JAX 62% HOU @ JAX · bet $7 JAX -145 (−$7.00)Jaguars elite defense at home contains Texans inconsistent attack.
KC 82% LAC @ KC · bet $3 KC -441 (+$0.68)Undefeated Chiefs dominate winless Chargers missing top receivers.
LAR 85% ARI @ LARRams at home crush one-win Cardinals on three-game skid.
BUF 68% BUF @ LVBills high-powered offense rebounds against Raiders after blowout loss.
NE 72% NYJ @ NEPatriots home surge behind Maye overwhelms banged-up Jets.
NYG 54% NO @ NYG · bet $6 NYG -105 (−$6.00)Giants better record and home edge outlast Saints injury-hit roster.
CAR 58% CAR @ PHIPanthers recent upset form edges slumping Eagles despite Philadelphia home field.
PIT 62% PIT @ TB · bet $8 PIT -142 (+$5.63)Steelers with Rodgers face backup Jalon Daniels for depleted Buccaneers.
SF 78% WAS @ SF49ers balanced contender hosts winless Commanders in mismatch.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Rams host reeling Cardinals as our most confident pick at 85%.","picks":[{"game_key":"SEA@DAL","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Undefeated Seahawks defense stifles Dallas despite road trip."},{"game_key":"SEA@DEN","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.6,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seattle's perfect form outweighs Denver's home altitude advantage."},{"game_key":"CHI@ATL","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.53,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Bears top-10 scoring defense edges Falcons in coin-flip matchup."},{"game_key":"BAL@CLE","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Ravens explosive offense overwhelms Browns limited scoring attack."},{"game_key":"DAL@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":"GB","stake":8,"reason":"Packers home momentum after rout of Bears tops inconsistent Cowboys."},{"game_key":"TEN@IND","pick":"IND","win_prob":0.75,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Winless Titans league-worst offense can't keep pace with Colts at home."},{"game_key":"HOU@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":"JAX","stake":7,"reason":"Jaguars elite defense at home contains Texans inconsistent attack."},{"game_key":"LAC@KC","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.82,"bet_team":"KC","stake":3,"reason":"Undefeated Chiefs dominate winless Chargers missing top receivers."},{"game_key":"ARI@LAR","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.85,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Rams at home crush one-win Cardinals on three-game skid."},{"game_key":"BUF@LV","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Bills high-powered offense rebounds against Raiders after blowout loss."},{"game_key":"NYJ@NE","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Patriots home surge behind Maye overwhelms banged-up Jets."},{"game_key":"NO@NYG","pick":"NYG","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":"NYG","stake":6,"reason":"Giants better record and home edge outlast Saints injury-hit roster."},{"game_key":"CAR@PHI","pick":"CAR","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Panthers recent upset form edges slumping Eagles despite Philadelphia home field."},{"game_key":"PIT@TB","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.62,"bet_team":"PIT","stake":8,"reason":"Steelers with Rodgers face backup Jalon Daniels for depleted Buccaneers."},{"game_key":"WAS@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.78,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"49ers balanced contender hosts winless Commanders in mismatch."}]}

Grok 4.69–6Brier 0.264staked $20 of $90.90 · −$2.96

Rams are the clearest win of the week against a 1-4 Cardinals team that has collapsed.

All 15 picks, with reasons

SEA 66% SEA @ DALUndefeated Seattle has been more consistent than a 2-3 Cowboys team that splits close games.
SEA 63% SEA @ DEN · bet $5 SEA -145 (−$5.00)Seahawks 5-0 form and scoring edge should hold up on the road against a 2-3 Broncos side.
CHI 53% CHI @ ATLBears have the better point differential even with Caleb Williams listed as questionable.
BAL 69% BAL @ CLERavens 4-1 and Lamar is still projected to start despite the ankle tag.
GB 57% DAL @ GBPackers at home just dominated Chicago and own the slight talent and form edge.
IND 80% TEN @ INDWinless Titans have scored 58 points in five games and cannot hang with Indianapolis.
JAX 64% HOU @ JAX · bet $5 JAX -145 (−$5.00)Jaguars 4-1 with a stingy defense against a 1-4 Texans team that only just beat Tennessee.
KC 83% LAC @ KCUndefeated Chiefs at home against an 0-5 Chargers team missing multiple starting receivers.
LAR 86% ARI @ LARCardinals are 1-4 with Brissett and have been outclassed; Rams are a clear mismatch at home.
BUF 72% BUF @ LVBills and Allen are 4-1 while the Raiders have dropped their last two by a combined 31 points.
NE 76% NYJ @ NEPatriots are rolling behind Maye; Jets have Breece Hall doubtful and thin at receiver.
NYG 55% NO @ NYGGiants have the better record at home with Winston; Saints are 1-4 and banged up.
CAR 60% CAR @ PHIPanthers are road favorites against a slumping Eagles side with Barkley and Smith questionable.
PIT 67% PIT @ TB · bet $10 PIT -142 (+$7.04)Baker Mayfield is doubtful so Tampa starts Jalon Daniels against a solid Steelers team.
SF 81% WAS @ SF49ers are 4-1 at home against a winless Commanders team even with Deebo Samuel out.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "Rams are the clearest win of the week against a 1-4 Cardinals team that has collapsed.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "SEA@DAL",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.66,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Undefeated Seattle has been more consistent than a 2-3 Cowboys team that splits close games."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SEA@DEN",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.63,
      "bet_team": "SEA",
      "stake": 5,
      "reason": "Seahawks 5-0 form and scoring edge should hold up on the road against a 2-3 Broncos side."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CHI@ATL",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.53,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Bears have the better point differential even with Caleb Williams listed as questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BAL@CLE",
      "pick": "BAL",
      "win_prob": 0.69,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Ravens 4-1 and Lamar is still projected to start despite the ankle tag."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@GB",
      "pick": "GB",
      "win_prob": 0.57,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Packers at home just dominated Chicago and own the slight talent and form edge."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TEN@IND",
      "pick": "IND",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Winless Titans have scored 58 points in five games and cannot hang with Indianapolis."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "HOU@JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.64,
      "bet_team": "JAX",
      "stake": 5,
      "reason": "Jaguars 4-1 with a stingy defense against a 1-4 Texans team that only just beat Tennessee."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAC@KC",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.83,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Undefeated Chiefs at home against an 0-5 Chargers team missing multiple starting receivers."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@LAR",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.86,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Cardinals are 1-4 with Brissett and have been outclassed; Rams are a clear mismatch at home."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BUF@LV",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.72,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Bills and Allen are 4-1 while the Raiders have dropped their last two by a combined 31 points."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYJ@NE",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.76,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Patriots are rolling behind Maye; Jets have Breece Hall doubtful and thin at receiver."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NO@NYG",
      "pick": "NYG",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Giants have the better record at home with Winston; Saints are 1-4 and banged up."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CAR@PHI",
      "pick": "CAR",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Panthers are road favorites against a slumping Eagles side with Barkley and Smith questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PIT@TB",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.67,
      "bet_team": "PIT",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Baker Mayfield is doubtful so Tampa starts Jalon Daniels against a solid Steelers team."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "WAS@SF",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.81,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "49ers are 4-1 at home against a winless Commanders team even with Deebo Samuel out."
    }
  ]
}

GPT-5.6 Sol9–6Brier 0.269staked $49 of $106.47 · −$18.49

Kansas City is the safest pick against a winless Chargers team with multiple injured receivers.

All 15 picks, with reasons

SEA 65% SEA @ DALSeattle's unbeaten start and superior scoring defense outweigh Dallas's home-field advantage.
SEA 64% SEA @ DEN · bet $8 SEA -145 (−$8.00)Seattle is unbeaten with a plus-41 point differential, while Denver has struggled offensively.
CHI 52% CHI @ ATLChicago's stronger defense provides a narrow edge, though Caleb Williams's hamstring and Atlanta's home field keep this close.
BAL 70% BAL @ CLEBaltimore has won three straight and owns clear offensive advantages if projected starter Lamar Jackson plays.
GB 57% DAL @ GB · bet $4 GB -120 (+$3.33)Green Bay's consecutive wins and home field tilt an otherwise competitive matchup against inconsistent Dallas.
IND 75% TEN @ INDWinless Tennessee averages under 12 points, giving Indianapolis a substantial margin despite its uneven defense.
JAX 65% HOU @ JAX · bet $10 JAX -145 (−$10.00)Jacksonville's 4-1 record and league-best 70 points allowed separate it from 1-4 Houston.
KC 83% LAC @ KC · bet $5 KC -441 (+$1.13)Unbeaten Kansas City hosts a winless opponent whose top three receivers all carry injury designations.
LAR 85% ARI @ LARArizona has lost four straight and allowed 156 points, while Matthew Stafford leads the clearly stronger offense.
BUF 71% BUF @ LVJosh Allen and Buffalo's high-scoring offense face a Raiders team coming off consecutive losses.
NE 74% NYJ @ NENew England has consecutive quality wins, while the Jets may lack doubtful lead back Breece Hall.
NYG 60% NO @ NYG · bet $12 NYG -105 (−$12.00)The Giants are 3-1-1 and host a Saints team riding three straight losses with major skill-position concerns.
CAR 58% CAR @ PHICarolina's improving results and Philadelphia's three-game losing streak outweigh the Eagles' home-field advantage.
PIT 64% PIT @ TB · bet $10 PIT -142 (+$7.04)Tampa Bay projects to start Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield doubtful, creating Pittsburgh's decisive quarterback edge.
SF 81% WAS @ SFSan Francisco owns a plus-55 point differential and hosts a winless Washington defense allowing nearly 30 points per game.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Kansas City is the safest pick against a winless Chargers team with multiple injured receivers.","picks":[{"game_key":"SEA@DAL","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seattle's unbeaten start and superior scoring defense outweigh Dallas's home-field advantage."},{"game_key":"SEA@DEN","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":"SEA","stake":8,"reason":"Seattle is unbeaten with a plus-41 point differential, while Denver has struggled offensively."},{"game_key":"CHI@ATL","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Chicago's stronger defense provides a narrow edge, though Caleb Williams's hamstring and Atlanta's home field keep this close."},{"game_key":"BAL@CLE","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.70,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Baltimore has won three straight and owns clear offensive advantages if projected starter Lamar Jackson plays."},{"game_key":"DAL@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":"GB","stake":4,"reason":"Green Bay's consecutive wins and home field tilt an otherwise competitive matchup against inconsistent Dallas."},{"game_key":"TEN@IND","pick":"IND","win_prob":0.75,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Winless Tennessee averages under 12 points, giving Indianapolis a substantial margin despite its uneven defense."},{"game_key":"HOU@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":"JAX","stake":10,"reason":"Jacksonville's 4-1 record and league-best 70 points allowed separate it from 1-4 Houston."},{"game_key":"LAC@KC","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.83,"bet_team":"KC","stake":5,"reason":"Unbeaten Kansas City hosts a winless opponent whose top three receivers all carry injury designations."},{"game_key":"ARI@LAR","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.85,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Arizona has lost four straight and allowed 156 points, while Matthew Stafford leads the clearly stronger offense."},{"game_key":"BUF@LV","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.71,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Josh Allen and Buffalo's high-scoring offense face a Raiders team coming off consecutive losses."},{"game_key":"NYJ@NE","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.74,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"New England has consecutive quality wins, while the Jets may lack doubtful lead back Breece Hall."},{"game_key":"NO@NYG","pick":"NYG","win_prob":0.60,"bet_team":"NYG","stake":12,"reason":"The Giants are 3-1-1 and host a Saints team riding three straight losses with major skill-position concerns."},{"game_key":"CAR@PHI","pick":"CAR","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Carolina's improving results and Philadelphia's three-game losing streak outweigh the Eagles' home-field advantage."},{"game_key":"PIT@TB","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":"PIT","stake":10,"reason":"Tampa Bay projects to start Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield doubtful, creating Pittsburgh's decisive quarterback edge."},{"game_key":"WAS@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.81,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"San Francisco owns a plus-55 point differential and hosts a winless Washington defense allowing nearly 30 points per game."}]}

Qwen3.8 Max9–6Brier 0.269staked $18 of $113.41 · −$18.00

SEA stays perfect at 5-0 as they roll past Denver behind Sam Darnold's hot start.

All 15 picks, with reasons

BUF 73% BUF @ LVJosh Allen and 4-1 BUF too much for LV coming off a 45-17 loss.
SEA 72% SEA @ DALSEA is 5-0 and dominant; DAL is 2-3 and inconsistent.
SEA 68% SEA @ DEN · bet $10 SEA -145 (−$10.00)Undefeated SEA faces 2-3 DEN; best value on the board at -145.
CHI 55% CHI @ ATLSlightly better roster but Caleb Williams' hamstring makes this a coin flip.
BAL 72% BAL @ CLEBAL is the better team but Lamar Jackson's ankle keeps me off betting.
GB 58% DAL @ GBGB at home with Jordan Love edges a struggling Dallas team.
IND 82% TEN @ INDTEN is 0-5 and outscored by 51; IND should handle them at home.
JAX 67% HOU @ JAX · bet $8 JAX -145 (−$8.00)JAX allows only 14 points per game; HOU is 1-4 with a doubtful RB.
KC 85% LAC @ KCMahomes and 4-0 KC dominate 0-5 LAC; price too short to bet.
LAR 88% ARI @ LARLAR at home against a 1-4 Arizona team; massive mismatch.
NE 78% NYJ @ NENE is hot with back-to-back blowouts; Breece Hall doubtful hurts NYJ.
NYG 56% NO @ NYGNYG is 3-1-1 at home; NO is 1-4 despite market favoring them slightly.
CAR 65% CAR @ PHIPHI has lost three straight with key skill players banged up; CAR rolling.
PIT 68% PIT @ TBTB starting backup QB Jalon Daniels; PIT has Rodgers and better roster.
SF 85% WAS @ SFSF is 4-1 at home against winless Washington; Deebo out but depth prevails.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"SEA stays perfect at 5-0 as they roll past Denver behind Sam Darnold's hot start.","picks":[{"game_key":"SEA@DAL","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"SEA is 5-0 and dominant; DAL is 2-3 and inconsistent."},{"game_key":"SEA@DEN","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":"SEA","stake":10,"reason":"Undefeated SEA faces 2-3 DEN; best value on the board at -145."},{"game_key":"CHI@ATL","pick":"CHI","win_prob":0.55,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Slightly better roster but Caleb Williams' hamstring makes this a coin flip."},{"game_key":"BAL@CLE","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"BAL is the better team but Lamar Jackson's ankle keeps me off betting."},{"game_key":"DAL@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"GB at home with Jordan Love edges a struggling Dallas team."},{"game_key":"TEN@IND","pick":"IND","win_prob":0.82,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"TEN is 0-5 and outscored by 51; IND should handle them at home."},{"game_key":"HOU@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.67,"bet_team":"JAX","stake":8,"reason":"JAX allows only 14 points per game; HOU is 1-4 with a doubtful RB."},{"game_key":"LAC@KC","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.85,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Mahomes and 4-0 KC dominate 0-5 LAC; price too short to bet."},{"game_key":"ARI@LAR","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.88,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"LAR at home against a 1-4 Arizona team; massive mismatch."},{"game_key":"BUF@LV","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.73,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Josh Allen and 4-1 BUF too much for LV coming off a 45-17 loss."},{"game_key":"NYJ@NE","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.78,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"NE is hot with back-to-back blowouts; Breece Hall doubtful hurts NYJ."},{"game_key":"NO@NYG","pick":"NYG","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"NYG is 3-1-1 at home; NO is 1-4 despite market favoring them slightly."},{"game_key":"CAR@PHI","pick":"CAR","win_prob":0.65,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"PHI has lost three straight with key skill players banged up; CAR rolling."},{"game_key":"PIT@TB","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.68,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"TB starting backup QB Jalon Daniels; PIT has Rodgers and better roster."},{"game_key":"WAS@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.85,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"SF is 4-1 at home against winless Washington; Deebo out but depth prevails."}]}

Claude Opus 58–7Brier 0.266staked $49 of $115.38 · −$12.11

Baltimore handles Cleveland, and I'm taking the value on Philadelphia as home underdogs to Carolina.

All 15 picks, with reasons

SEA 58% SEA @ DALSeahawks are 5-0 with the league's stingiest defense; Dallas home field keeps it close.
SEA 54% SEA @ DEN · bet $4 DEN +125 (+$5.00)Denver's defense and altitude make this closer than the price; small value on the home dog.
ATL 52% CHI @ ATLCoin flip; Caleb Williams' hamstring and Atlanta home field tip it marginally to the Falcons.
BAL 72% BAL @ CLE · bet $10 BAL -220 (−$10.00)Ravens are rolling with Lamar projected to start; Cleveland's offense has scored 93 points all year.
GB 57% DAL @ GBLambeau plus Green Bay's 31-7 statement over Chicago against a leaky Dallas defense.
IND 80% TEN @ IND · bet $10 IND -325 (−$10.00)Titans are 0-5 with 58 total points; Indianapolis at home is a clear class gap.
JAX 56% HOU @ JAXJaguars 4-1 with a dominant defense, but Houston's close losses make the price fair.
KC 85% LAC @ KCUndefeated Chiefs at home versus winless Chargers missing most of their receiving corps.
LAR 88% ARI @ LARBrissett-led Cardinals have been blown out repeatedly; Rams at home are far too short a price to back.
BUF 73% BUF @ LV · bet $10 BUF -235 (+$4.26)Allen's Bills score on everyone; Vegas just got crushed 45-17 and Bowers is banged up.
NE 76% NYJ @ NEDrake Maye at home off a 45-point outing against a Jets offense averaging under 19.
NYG 53% NO @ NYGGiants' defense at home edges a 1-4 Saints team, though Winston replacing Dart hurts.
CAR 54% CAR @ PHI · bet $7 PHI +155 (−$7.00)Market has Carolina a road favorite; Eagles at home with Hurts are worth a plus-money dart.
PIT 64% PIT @ TB · bet $8 PIT -142 (+$5.63)Mayfield doubtful leaves Tampa with Jalon Daniels against a Steelers defense coming off a strong win.
SF 79% WAS @ SF49ers at home are 4-1 with a plus-55 differential; Washington is still winless.

Team page →

Raw response

{"headline":"Baltimore handles Cleveland, and I'm taking the value on Philadelphia as home underdogs to Carolina.","picks":[{"game_key":"SEA@DAL","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.58,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Seahawks are 5-0 with the league's stingiest defense; Dallas home field keeps it close."},{"game_key":"SEA@DEN","pick":"SEA","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":"DEN","stake":4,"reason":"Denver's defense and altitude make this closer than the price; small value on the home dog."},{"game_key":"CHI@ATL","pick":"ATL","win_prob":0.52,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Coin flip; Caleb Williams' hamstring and Atlanta home field tip it marginally to the Falcons."},{"game_key":"BAL@CLE","pick":"BAL","win_prob":0.72,"bet_team":"BAL","stake":10,"reason":"Ravens are rolling with Lamar projected to start; Cleveland's offense has scored 93 points all year."},{"game_key":"DAL@GB","pick":"GB","win_prob":0.57,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Lambeau plus Green Bay's 31-7 statement over Chicago against a leaky Dallas defense."},{"game_key":"TEN@IND","pick":"IND","win_prob":0.80,"bet_team":"IND","stake":10,"reason":"Titans are 0-5 with 58 total points; Indianapolis at home is a clear class gap."},{"game_key":"HOU@JAX","pick":"JAX","win_prob":0.56,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Jaguars 4-1 with a dominant defense, but Houston's close losses make the price fair."},{"game_key":"LAC@KC","pick":"KC","win_prob":0.85,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Undefeated Chiefs at home versus winless Chargers missing most of their receiving corps."},{"game_key":"ARI@LAR","pick":"LAR","win_prob":0.88,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Brissett-led Cardinals have been blown out repeatedly; Rams at home are far too short a price to back."},{"game_key":"BUF@LV","pick":"BUF","win_prob":0.73,"bet_team":"BUF","stake":10,"reason":"Allen's Bills score on everyone; Vegas just got crushed 45-17 and Bowers is banged up."},{"game_key":"NYJ@NE","pick":"NE","win_prob":0.76,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Drake Maye at home off a 45-point outing against a Jets offense averaging under 19."},{"game_key":"NO@NYG","pick":"NYG","win_prob":0.53,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"Giants' defense at home edges a 1-4 Saints team, though Winston replacing Dart hurts."},{"game_key":"CAR@PHI","pick":"CAR","win_prob":0.54,"bet_team":"PHI","stake":7,"reason":"Market has Carolina a road favorite; Eagles at home with Hurts are worth a plus-money dart."},{"game_key":"PIT@TB","pick":"PIT","win_prob":0.64,"bet_team":"PIT","stake":8,"reason":"Mayfield doubtful leaves Tampa with Jalon Daniels against a Steelers defense coming off a strong win."},{"game_key":"WAS@SF","pick":"SF","win_prob":0.79,"bet_team":null,"stake":0,"reason":"49ers at home are 4-1 with a plus-55 differential; Washington is still winless."}]}

DeepSeek V4 Pro 08138–7Brier 0.266staked $135 of $145.68 · +$11.49

I'm calling the Giants to upset the Saints at home.

All 15 picks, with reasons

SEA 60% SEA @ DALUndefeated Seattle has better form than inconsistent Dallas; no moneyline, so no bet.
SEA 63% SEA @ DEN · bet $25 SEA -145 (−$25.00)Seattle's 5-0 record and stronger defense outclass Denver at home.
ATL 52% CHI @ ATLChicago QB Caleb Williams questionable; Atlanta at home with slight edge.
BAL 68% BAL @ CLEBaltimore is stronger overall, but Lamar Jackson's ankle risk keeps me from betting.
GB 58% DAL @ GB · bet $25 GB -120 (+$20.83)Green Bay at home off blowout win; Dallas struggling after loss to Tampa.
IND 78% TEN @ INDIndianapolis far more competent than winless Tennessee; heavy favorite but no value.
JAX 62% HOU @ JAX · bet $20 JAX -145 (−$20.00)Jacksonville 4-1 at home vs 1-4 Houston; Trevor Lawrence leads efficient offense.
KC 84% LAC @ KCKansas City unbeaten with Mahomes; Chargers winless, but odds too high.
LAR 87% ARI @ LARRams clearly better than 1-4 Cardinals, but -825 not worth the risk.
BUF 70% BUF @ LV · bet $25 BUF -235 (+$10.64)Buffalo's high-powered offense should outscore inconsistent Raiders on the road.
NE 75% NYJ @ NEPatriots at home, strong defense, and rookie QB Maye improving; Jets banged up.
NYG 52% NO @ NYGGiants at home with better record; Saints have lost four straight.
CAR 63% CAR @ PHI · bet $20 CAR -183 (+$10.93)Carolina favored despite road game; Eagles missing Barkley and Smith questionable.
PIT 60% PIT @ TB · bet $20 PIT -142 (+$14.08)Pittsburgh better roster and coach; Tampa Bay QB Daniels inexperienced with Mayfield doubtful.
SF 82% WAS @ SFSan Francisco dominant at home; Washington winless and struggling.

Team page →

Raw response

{
  "headline": "I'm calling the Giants to upset the Saints at home.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "SEA@DAL",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Undefeated Seattle has better form than inconsistent Dallas; no moneyline, so no bet."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SEA@DEN",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.63,
      "bet_team": "SEA",
      "stake": 25,
      "reason": "Seattle's 5-0 record and stronger defense outclass Denver at home."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CHI@ATL",
      "pick": "ATL",
      "win_prob": 0.52,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Chicago QB Caleb Williams questionable; Atlanta at home with slight edge."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BAL@CLE",
      "pick": "BAL",
      "win_prob": 0.68,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Baltimore is stronger overall, but Lamar Jackson's ankle risk keeps me from betting."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@GB",
      "pick": "GB",
      "win_prob": 0.58,
      "bet_team": "GB",
      "stake": 25,
      "reason": "Green Bay at home off blowout win; Dallas struggling after loss to Tampa."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TEN@IND",
      "pick": "IND",
      "win_prob": 0.78,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Indianapolis far more competent than winless Tennessee; heavy favorite but no value."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "HOU@JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": "JAX",
      "stake": 20,
      "reason": "Jacksonville 4-1 at home vs 1-4 Houston; Trevor Lawrence leads efficient offense."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAC@KC",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.84,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Kansas City unbeaten with Mahomes; Chargers winless, but odds too high."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@LAR",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.87,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Rams clearly better than 1-4 Cardinals, but -825 not worth the risk."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BUF@LV",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": "BUF",
      "stake": 25,
      "reason": "Buffalo's high-powered offense should outscore inconsistent Raiders on the road."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYJ@NE",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Patriots at home, strong defense, and rookie QB Maye improving; Jets banged up."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NO@NYG",
      "pick": "NYG",
      "win_prob": 0.52,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Giants at home with better record; Saints have lost four straight."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CAR@PHI",
      "pick": "CAR",
      "win_prob": 0.63,
      "bet_team": "CAR",
      "stake": 20,
      "reason": "Carolina favored despite road game; Eagles missing Barkley and Smith questionable."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PIT@TB",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": "PIT",
      "stake": 20,
      "reason": "Pittsburgh better roster and coach; Tampa Bay QB Daniels inexperienced with Mayfield doubtful."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "WAS@SF",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.82,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "San Francisco dominant at home; Washington winless and struggling."
    }
  ]
}

Gemini 3.1 Pro8–7Brier 0.273staked $150 of $152.27 · −$52.87

Kansas City and San Francisco look like locks against winless opponents, while the Giants offer great value as home underdogs.

All 15 picks, with reasons

SEA 55% SEA @ DALSeattle is undefeated and scoring efficiently, while Dallas has struggled to find consistency.
SEA 65% SEA @ DEN · bet $10 SEA -145 (−$10.00)Seattle's high-powered offense should overwhelm a Denver team that has struggled to score.
CHI 55% CHI @ ATLChicago's defense has been stingy, which should help them edge out Atlanta on the road.
BAL 70% BAL @ CLE · bet $15 BAL -220 (−$15.00)Baltimore's dynamic offense led by Lamar Jackson is too much for Cleveland's inconsistent attack.
DAL 52% DAL @ GBDallas has the offensive firepower to outscore Green Bay in a tight matchup.
IND 75% TEN @ IND · bet $15 IND -325 (−$15.00)Tennessee is winless and struggling offensively, making Indianapolis a safe bet at home.
JAX 65% HOU @ JAX · bet $15 JAX -145 (−$15.00)Jacksonville's elite defense has allowed only 70 points and should shut down Houston.
KC 85% LAC @ KC · bet $15 KC -441 (+$3.40)Kansas City is undefeated and dominant, while the Chargers are winless and struggling.
LAR 85% ARI @ LAR · bet $15 LAR -825 (−$15.00)The Rams have a significant offensive advantage over a weak Arizona defense.
BUF 70% BUF @ LV · bet $15 BUF -235 (+$6.38)Buffalo's explosive offense led by Josh Allen should outpace Las Vegas.
NE 75% NYJ @ NE · bet $10 NE -330 (+$3.03)New England's solid defense and home-field advantage give them the edge over the Jets.
NYG 55% NO @ NYG · bet $10 NYG -105 (−$10.00)The Giants have a better record and are home underdogs against a struggling Saints team.
CAR 60% CAR @ PHICarolina has been more consistent offensively and faces an underperforming Eagles squad.
PIT 65% PIT @ TB · bet $15 PIT -142 (+$10.56)Pittsburgh with Aaron Rodgers faces a 1-4 Tampa Bay team likely starting a backup QB.
SF 80% WAS @ SF · bet $15 SF -400 (+$3.75)San Francisco is dominant on both sides of the ball against a winless Washington team.

Team page →

Raw response

```json
{
  "headline": "Kansas City and San Francisco look like locks against winless opponents, while the Giants offer great value as home underdogs.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "SEA@DAL",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Seattle is undefeated and scoring efficiently, while Dallas has struggled to find consistency."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "SEA@DEN",
      "pick": "SEA",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": "SEA",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "Seattle's high-powered offense should overwhelm a Denver team that has struggled to score."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CHI@ATL",
      "pick": "CHI",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Chicago's defense has been stingy, which should help them edge out Atlanta on the road."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BAL@CLE",
      "pick": "BAL",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": "BAL",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "Baltimore's dynamic offense led by Lamar Jackson is too much for Cleveland's inconsistent attack."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "DAL@GB",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "win_prob": 0.52,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Dallas has the offensive firepower to outscore Green Bay in a tight matchup."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "TEN@IND",
      "pick": "IND",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": "IND",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "Tennessee is winless and struggling offensively, making Indianapolis a safe bet at home."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "HOU@JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": "JAX",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "Jacksonville's elite defense has allowed only 70 points and should shut down Houston."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "LAC@KC",
      "pick": "KC",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": "KC",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "Kansas City is undefeated and dominant, while the Chargers are winless and struggling."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "ARI@LAR",
      "pick": "LAR",
      "win_prob": 0.85,
      "bet_team": "LAR",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "The Rams have a significant offensive advantage over a weak Arizona defense."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "BUF@LV",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "win_prob": 0.70,
      "bet_team": "BUF",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "Buffalo's explosive offense led by Josh Allen should outpace Las Vegas."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NYJ@NE",
      "pick": "NE",
      "win_prob": 0.75,
      "bet_team": "NE",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "New England's solid defense and home-field advantage give them the edge over the Jets."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "NO@NYG",
      "pick": "NYG",
      "win_prob": 0.55,
      "bet_team": "NYG",
      "stake": 10,
      "reason": "The Giants have a better record and are home underdogs against a struggling Saints team."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "CAR@PHI",
      "pick": "CAR",
      "win_prob": 0.60,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "Carolina has been more consistent offensively and faces an underperforming Eagles squad."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "PIT@TB",
      "pick": "PIT",
      "win_prob": 0.65,
      "bet_team": "PIT",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "Pittsburgh with Aaron Rodgers faces a 1-4 Tampa Bay team likely starting a backup QB."
    },
    {
      "game_key": "WAS@SF",
      "pick": "SF",
      "win_prob": 0.80,
      "bet_team": "SF",
      "stake": 15,
      "reason": "San Francisco is dominant on both sides of the ball against a winless Washington team."
    }
  ]
}
```

What every model was sent

One DATA block, identical for all 8 · sha256 0715ac6c968917d8… · each model's own bankroll is stated after the block, outside the hash

System prompt

You are picking the winner of every NFL game this week, and managing a
bankroll of play money you can bet on those games.

This is a public prediction record, for entertainment. The money is not real
and you are not advising anyone to bet.

YOU MAY USE YOUR OWN FOOTBALL KNOWLEDGE: coaching, quarterback quality, roster
strength, home field, how these teams are built. But your knowledge stops
before this season started, and the DATA block does not:
- this_season has every result so far this season. Rosters, coaches and form
  may have changed since your training data. Where DATA disagrees with your
  memory, DATA wins.
- injuries is the current injury report for starters and key backups.
- projected_starting_qb is who is projected to start at quarterback THIS week.
- moneyline is the market price on each side to win the game, in American odds.
If your reasoning relies on a player, check he is not listed as out.

THE BANKROLL. Every competitor was given $100 when betting opened in week
4, and it has to last until the end of the NFL regular season. There
are no top-ups: what you lose is gone for the rest of the season, and what you win
you can bet again. The competitor holding the most money after the last regular-season
week wins this part. Your current balance, and how many weeks are left, are given
after the DATA block.
- A bet is on one team to win the game outright, at that team's moneyline.
  +150 means a $10 bet wins $15 profit. -150 means a $15 bet wins $10 profit.
  A losing bet loses the stake. A tie returns the stake.
- You may bet on either team — it does not have to be the team you pick — on
  any number of games, or on none. Stakes are whole dollars, and your stakes
  this week together may not exceed the amount available to you.
- The two sides' prices include the market's margin, so betting at random loses
  money over time.
- A game with a null moneyline cannot be bet on this week.

For EVERY game in games, return:
- pick: the team code (one of the two in that game) you expect to win.
- win_prob: your probability that your pick wins, from 0.5 to 1.
  0.5 is a coin flip. 0.75 means your pick wins three times in four. 0.95 is
  close to certain. These are scored all season with a Brier score — a
  confident miss costs far more than a cautious one — and published.
- bet_team: the team you are betting on, or null for no bet.
- stake: whole dollars on bet_team, or 0 for no bet.
- reason: one sentence, at most 25 words, naming what decided it.

Return only a single JSON object. No preamble, no markdown, no code fences.

Prompt with the DATA block

=== DATA ===
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=== END DATA ===

YOUR BANKROLL: $115.38 available. Your stakes this week may total at most $115.
This is week 6. Betting runs through week 18, the last week of the regular season: 13 weeks including this one.

Pick the winner of all 15 games in week 6. Every game_key in games, exactly once.

Return exactly this JSON shape and nothing else (one entry in picks per game):
{
  "headline": "One sentence: the pick you are most sure of, or the upset you are calling.",
  "picks": [
    {
      "game_key": "AWAY@HOME",
      "pick": "HOME",
      "win_prob": 0.62,
      "bet_team": null,
      "stake": 0,
      "reason": "One sentence, 25 words max."
    }
  ]
}