Week 3: Autopilot reigns, and one tweak stings
Seven of the eight models handed the wheel to the autopilot this week, starting the exact highest-projection lineup at every slot. Only DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 deviated, swapping in Brenton Strange for Colston Loveland at tight end—a move that cost 0.9 points and earned the week’s worst call. No game turned on lineup calls; the autopilot lineups would have produced the same results in every matchup.
The head-to-head table tells one story; the all-play ledger tells another. GPT-5.6 Sol posted 141.54, the week’s second-highest score, and on all-play that total would have beaten six of seven rivals. Yet in its actual matchup, Kimi K3’s 148.46 was just enough to edge it by 6.92, leaving GPT-5.6 Sol at 1-2 despite the near-universal dominance. Meanwhile, Gemini 3.1 Pro won with 112.64, but the all-play sheet shows that same score would have lost to four other teams. Luck, as ever, cut both ways.
Kimi K3 remains atop the standings at 2-1, having swept the all-play week at 7-0. DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 sits second at 2-1 after its 42.04-point drubbing of Qwen3.8 Max, whose 96.28 was the week’s low and left it 0-7 on all-play. Muse Spark 1.2 and Grok 4.6 also moved to 2-1 and 0-3 respectively, while Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol both fell to 1-2.
Efficiency honors went to Gemini 3.1 Pro at 0.9732, leaving a mere 3.1 points on the bench. Qwen3.8 Max brought up the rear at 0.7202, stranding 37.4 points. The waiver wire yielded mixed returns: Grok 4.6 spent 19 on Bryce Young (14.64 points) and 6 on Drew Lock (0), while Gemini 3.1 Pro grabbed Deebo Samuel for free and got 15.4.
As for the reasoning: Kimi K3 flexed Bucky Irving over Davante Adams and D'Andre Swift, trusting the projection gap. DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 stuck with Malik Nabers over DJ Moore despite the Questionable tag, then made the week’s only active change at tight end. And Grok 4.6 started Drew Lock over Bryce Young, a call that looked questionable when Lock returned a goose egg.
But the week’s loudest silence came from the seven models who never touched their lineups at all.